The British pig price looks set to average around 164p this year, hitting its low point in the next few weeks, and then rising to about 170p at the top of the market, British Pig Executive (BPEX) chief Mick Sloyan told this week's NPA Allied Industry Group conference.
"I think that is very doable," he said. "It is possible that we might do a bit more, but I wouldn't want to bet on it."
Looking at key economic indicators for the British pig herd this year, he saw slaughterings soon starting to turn downwards.
"I would urge some caution though. We can all name people who have gone out of pigs over the last six months, but if we think about it we can probably think of people who are keeping a few more sows as well."
A far as the European Union herd was concerned there was no new data yet since the downturns reported in the summer surveys of member countries.
But as long as there was pressure to ensure countries complied with the stalls ban, further reductions would be seen, he predicted.
"The latest European Union forecast puts the fall in production this year at 3 percent. I think that is overcooking it a bit, but I do think production will be down around 2 percent."
The implications of a fall in production were improved prices this year and into 2014, he said. "However consumer resistance was very obvious when the European market took off last year and the pig price went up to 180-185 euros.
"It was too much, and consumer resistance meant they couldn't sustain it. Don't forget that in many countries pig meat is the meat of choice, so it is much more sensitive to price changes, which creates a sort of natural cap."
Looking at trends for 2013, he said that last year BPEX had forecast there would be less than enthusiastic enforcement of the partial sow stall ban, and it would take all of 2013 and probably into 2014 before the full effect was felt.
It forecast the European Union breeding herd to be down about 5 per cent and production to drop 2-3 per cent. "And we still say that is the most likely outcome."
BPEX also predicted a 10 per cent increase in the pig price. "I think that is very do-able," said Mick Sloyan, stressing the importance of maintaining the British premium of around 9p a kilo.
