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US feed grain supply outlook down on delayed plantings

Written June 19, 2013

Cool, wet weather affecting crop progress

The outlook for 2013-2014 U.S. feed grain supplies has been lowered as delayed plantings reduce yield prospects for corn, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.

Corn production is projected 135 million bushels lower at 14 billion bushels, with the average yield projected at 156.5 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from May numbers. Forecast total use is down 70 million bushels to 12.9 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is lowered 125 million bushels to 5.2 billion bushels, but industrial use is raised 55 million bushels.

According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service June 10 Crop Progress report, as of June 9, 95 percent of the corn crop had been planted, compared with 100 percent at the same point in the 2012 season and 98 percent for the 2008-2012 average. Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin were well behind the normal pace. Corn emergence statistics reveal more of the effects of cool, wet weather on the 2013 corn crop, with only 85 percent emerged as of June 9 compared with 99 percent in the previous season and 92 percent for the 2008-2012 average.

As would be expected, emergence was well behind normal in the same states where planting was significantly delayed. Corn rated good or better comprised only 63 percent of the 18-state total, compared with 66 percent at the same point last season, according to the USDA.

The projected 2013-2014 season average farm price for corn is raised $0.10 at both ends of the range to $5.20 to $4.40 per bushel, with a resulting midpoint of $4.80 per bushel. Prices are also raised for sorghum, barley and oats.

For 2012-2013, corn imports and industrial use have been increased, but exports have been lowered, leaving forecast ending stocks up 10 million bushels. U.S. prices for old-crop corn are high compared with competitors, encouraging imports and discouraging exports. Brazil's 2012-2013 corn production is record large and raised again for June. The country's second-crop corn is just beginning to be harvested, and the Brazilian government increased area harvested for grain in its latest report. Recent showers across Mato Grosso came after the dry season had set in, providing a boost to corn in the grain-fill stage. Corn production is up 1 million tons in June to a record 77 million tons.

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