Global chicken meat exports to increase 3 percent in 2018

The world’s leading chicken meat exporters are forecast to see shipments rise in 2018. Find out which poultry producing country see a decline.

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While growth in exports is forecast to be slightly lower in 2018 than in 2017, of the leading exporters, only China is expected to see shipments decline. | Foreign Agricultural Office, USDA
While growth in exports is forecast to be slightly lower in 2018 than in 2017, of the leading exporters, only China is expected to see shipments decline. | Foreign Agricultural Office, USDA

Global trade in chicken meat is expected to increase by 3 percent in 2018 to reach 11.4 million tons, according to forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), outstripping the predicted 1 percent rise in total global broiler production, but growing at a slightly lower rate than in 2017.

Driven by growth in the global economy, which is expected to be stronger than in recent years, and which the World Bank is forecasting at close to 3 percent, poultry producers can expect a year of gains, whether focused on their home or overseas markets.

Several of the world’s leading poultry-producing countries, including Brazil, the EU, India, Thailand and the U.S., can expect to see higher output in 2018 and, for Brazil and the U.S. in particular, demand from export markets is expected to be particularly strong.

While disease is an ever-present risk, the world’s key poultry exporters are mostly disease free, meaning they should be well placed to respond to growing demand.

The exception this year will be China, whose exports are expected to decline by almost 4 percent in 2018, wiping out the increases made in 2017.

So what can the major chicken exporting countries expect in 2018?

Brazil

With early 2017’s quality concerns now firmly behind it, Brazil will be continuing its well-trodden path of capturing new markets and gaining greater market share in 2018. USDA forecasts made towards the end of 2017 indicate that Brazilian exports will grow by 4 percent in 2018.

For 2017, even with the difficulties that Brazil faced during the first half, exports are thought to have been slightly higher.

According to the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein Association (ABPA) exports of broiler meat over the first 10 months of 2017 reached 3.67 million tonnes, a mere 0.5 percent lower than over the same period in 2016, indicating that, even before the year end, the industry’s position in export markets was almost fully recovered.

Markets closed to Brazilian product have reopened and, additionally, the country has made ground in a number of other areas including resolving a trade dispute with Indonesia, new export agreements with European markets and more processing plants recognized for export by the Chinese authorities

USA

Poultry meat exports from the USA are expected to grow by 3 percent this year, reaching 3.2 million tons.

The country is now HPAI free and strong demand for poultry meat is expected to come from both the overseas and domestic markets. While a number of foreign markets are expected to increase imports of chicken meat from the USA, demand from Mexico is expected to be particularly strong.

Poultry production in the USA this year is expected to reach record levels, growing by 2 percent to reach 19 million tons.

European Union

Like the USA, European Union exports have been hit by disease outbreaks, nevertheless, the European Commission forecasts that sales beyond the bloc’s borders will be higher in 2018, aided by the lifting of various trade embargos.

During the first half of 2017, exports remained stable, despite some markets closing due to HPAI concerns. For 2017 as a whole, however, exports are thought to have fallen by 0.5 percent, also pulled down by decreasing demand from Saudi Arabia and South Africa. Nevertheless, the Commission notes that reductions in some markets were largely offset by gains in others

For 2018, exports are expected to be a little under 2.5 percent while overall, poultry production is expected to expand by 1.2 percent, slightly below 2017’s growth of 1.3 percent.

The USDA notes that where Europe has performed particularly well is in exports of low priced cuts, bone in cuts and mechanically deboned meat to Sub-Saharan Africa, driven by lower production and grain costs.

Thailand

Thailand’s chicken meat production is expected to grow by 5 percent in 2018, while exports are forecast to be 4 percent higher, building on the export successes of 2017, and reaching 800,000 tonnes.

While positive, this represents a significant slowdown in the 12 percent increase estimated for 2017, when Thailand was able to take the place of Brazil in many markets and seeing sales reach 770,000 tonnes. Demand for Thai product has been particularly strong from Japan and neighboring countries, and Canada.

The Thai industry has benefitted from robust prices and lower production costs. Additionally, while its neighbors have experienced disease outbreaks, Thailand has avoided serious disease outbreaks.

Demand from these markets is expected to remain strong, however, Thai meat is gradually being displaced in the European market by local production.

Where domestic demand is concerned, the industry has benefitted from an upturn in the Thai economy and rising incomes leading to greater purchasing power.

China

China is expected to export 385,000 tonnes of poultry meat in 2018, a decline of 4 percent, and total broiler production is forecast to decline for the third year in a row. While China had seen a surge in exports to the European Union since the start of the decade, this has been tailing off.

China’s production is forecast to be 5 percent lower in 2018, the third consecutive fall in output. Production has been constrained by HPAI, limited availability of genetics, weak prices, and soft demand. Broiler meat imports are expected to rise by 7 percent in 2018 to 11 million tones.

See the table of Selected major broiler producers in key exporting countries here. 

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