Osler Desouzart, OD Consulting, Brazil, presented nine facts he says define the future of poultry production, along with projections for the world’s production of poultry and meats, in a presentation at the 2012 Alltech Symposium.
Download a chart on Desouzart’s forecast for poultry and meat production.
Fact 1: World population will continue to grow even if at a declining rate and continuing toward zero growth by 2100.
“We are marching toward zero growth in world population by the year 2075,” Desouzart forecasted. This is not just occurring in developed countries, this will also be occurring in the less developed countries.
World population will be 2,463,205,000 in 2050, he forecasted.
Fact 2: Africa and Asia will account for about 89 percent of the growth in the world’s population from 2010 to 2050.
Of the 2.4 billion births on the planet between now and 2050, 2.1 billion will be in Asia and Africa. Demand will be very different in the future.
Fact 3: Food availability will continue to expand in the future.
“This may be very distressing news for people who like to predict a food crisis every five minutes,” he said.
Fact 4: Food availability does not mean fair food distribution.
Of the 925 million undernourished people on the planet today, 62 percent are in Asia/Pacific and 26 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2050, people will be starving, disproportionately so, in these world regions.
Fact 5: As world incomes increase, the human diet improves and includes a higher animal product intake, mainly meats.
The percentage of food intake in calories from animal proteins increased from 15.3 percent in 1960 to 17.2 percent in 2007. This trend continues.
Fact 6: As incomes rise in the future, meat consumption will rise.
Total meat production will be 510,723,000 metric tons in 2050. Compare that to estimated production of 301,980,000 tons this year.
Fact 7: As meat consumption increases, human consumption of vegetables and grains will fall.
In China, for example, per capita consumption of rice fell from 86.4 kilos per year to 76.8 kilos from 1985 to 2007.
Fact 8: Animal products require more natural resources than vegetable products.
The number of kilos of water required to produce a kilo of beef, pork or poultry, is estimated at 15,977, 5,906 and 2,828, respectively. Compare that to rice, wheat and corn at 2,656, 1,150 and 450 kilos, respectively.
Natural resources will favor the more efficient species—poultry and aquaculture.
“Beef will become a luxury item outside countries where pasture is plentiful. In a not-so-distant future, grass-fed herds will be seen in documentary segments on the History Channel,” he predicted.
Fact 9: Africa and Asia have only 36 percent of the world’s fresh water and will have 78.9 percent of the world’s population by 2050.
The application of science and technology in regions of most efficient production will allow free trade to move resources where they are needed. Productivity must be increased by 70 percent.
“Non-science based consumer demands must be respected in their markets but not imposed on regions where food availability is a priority. This can be achieved sustainably if science is applied to the task,” he said.
