Joel G. Newman, president and CEO of the American Feed Industry Association, released the study Future Patterns of U.S. Feed Grains, Biofuels, and Livestock and Poultry Feeding at the July 17 Federation of Animal Science Societies Joint Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Ariz. The study was presented in tandem with Robert Wisner, retired university professor emeritus with the Department of Economics at Iowa State University. Wisner was principal investigator for the study.
According to the report, the authors “reviewed recent trends in the U.S. and the global bioenergy, grain, feed and livestock industries. The report focuses on the impact of development of the U.S. bioenergy industry on grain and feed availability for the livestock sector as well as industry profitability, production, efficiency, demand, and the future of the feed livestock sector.”
Some of the observations made by the report include:
• In the next three to seven years, supplies of corn should be adequate, if U.S. corn yields return to their longer-term upward trend.
• Uncertainties that need to be monitored by the feed-livestock sector beyond 2020 are China’s demand for corn and the possibility of a second-stage growth in corn processing for biofuel.
• The primary way that the poultry and livestock sectors will adjust to biofuels expansion and international competition will be by finding and using more efficient cost-reducing production methods.
• Pork will most likely continue its growth if U.S. corn yields are close to normal for the next three to seven years.
• If ethanol demand slows and U.S. corn yields increase, the dairy industry should be able to return to long-term expansion as well as to increases in efficiency and productivity.
• An increase in beef cow numbers and beef production can be expected if feed supplies are available at a reasonable cost. However, other factors will likely put pressure on the industry to increase production and feed conversion efficiencies.
• The production of lower oil and de-oiled DDGS will require research on how to use these products most efficiently.
Additional areas covered in the report include food-population issues and possible climate change issues, among others.
The Institute for Feed Education and Research provided a grant on behalf of the American Feed Industry Association to the Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics in order to conduct this review.