Despite the outlook of a decline in broiler meat production in 2013, Thailand’s broiler meat exports should grow 7 percent to 580,000 metric tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.

Most of the growth is expected to take place in markets other than the EU and Japan, including ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries Hong Kong, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa. The EU and Japan will remain Thailand’s major markets, accounting for about 75–80 percent of total exports. Thailand could dramatically increase its exports of uncooked chicken meat if Japan and South Korea lift their bans on the import of uncooked Thai broiler meat, according to the USDA. Countries that have already lifted their highly pathogenic avian influenza bans on Thai uncooked frozen chicken meat include the EU, Hong Kong, South Africa, Bahrain and Russia.

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Based on the export performance of the first half of 2012 and the fact that the EU lifted its ban on Thai uncooked broiler meat, total chicken meat exports are unofficially estimated to reach 540,000 metric tons, up 15 percent from the 2011 level. Thailand is expected to export 40,000–50,000 metric tons of uncooked products to the EU in the second half of 2012, thus increasing total exports of uncooked products to 100,000–110,000 metric tons. The remaining exports (430,000–440,000 metric tons) consist of cooked products.

Since the EU lifted its ban of Thai uncooked broiler meat, Thailand gained about 92,610 metric tons of the EU’s quota for uncooked salted poultry meat and 5,100 metric tons for the uncooked unsalted poultry meat. The in-quota tariff rate is 15.4 percent, while the out of quota rate will be €1,300/ton, according to the USDA.