In the year 2021, world poultry meat production is projected to reach 127.2 million metric tons. Although the world’s population growth rate is expected to slow to just 1.02 percent per year over the next decade, nearly 680 million additional people will need food, fiber and fuel by 2021.
World population growth slows
In 2030, the world will have an estimated 8.3 billion people, and in 2050, the world will be home to 9.3 billion people. This means that a 70 percent increase in food production will be necessary between now and 2050 in order to keep up with the growing global population, according to a presentation given by Carl Hausmann, managing director at Bunge Ltd.
In preparing the latest “Agricultural Outlook” publication on global projections for the agriculture and food sectors from 2012 through 2021, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development based the projections on a series of assumptions. Some of these assumptions included the eventual containment of the sovereign debt and banking-sector problems in the Euro zone that are currently slowing economic growth, as well as high energy and oil prices. The nominal crude oil price is expected to be higher than in the past on account of higher crop costs, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 2.9 percent, from $111 per barrel in 2011 to $142 per barrel in 2021.
The greatest population growth will be in developing countries. Developing countries will contain about 6.9 billion people by 2030, and will account for 85 percent of the global population in 2050. Thus, these countries will make up much of the demand growth for poultry meat and eggs during that time.
Among OECD countries, Turkey is expected to have the highest growth rate over the next 10 years, at more than 4 percent per year. Brazil, Russia, India and China are all expected to continue growing over the next ten years at about 8 percent per year.
Egg consumption on the rise in developing countries
Projections from FAO suggest that global egg consumption will rise from 6.5 kg per person per year in 1997/99 to 8.9 kg per person per year in 2030 in developing countries. In industrial countries, egg consumption is projected to rise from 13.5 kg per person per year in 1997/99 to 13.8 kg per person per year in 2030.
More than 67 percent of demand for eggs by 2015 will come from Asia, according to Professor Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst. In China, where egg consumption is more than double the average for developing countries, a rise in consumption from 15 kg per person per year in 1997/99 to 20 kg per person per year in 2030 is likely based on FAO data.
Additional data from FAO suggest that the world’s production of eggs will reach 70.4 million metric tons in 2015 and 89.9 million metric tons in 2030, at a growth rate of 1.6 percent per year from 2015 through 2030. Of this global total, developing countries will produce 50.7 million metric tons of eggs in 2015 and 69 million metric tons of eggs in 2030.
Shifts in the makeup of global meat markets
Globally, meat production is also expected to slow from previous growth rates over the next decade. FAO projects world meet production will slow from an average growth rate of 2.2 percent per year in the previous decade to 1.8 percent per year, which is largely attributed to slower growth rates in Latin American countries, especially Brazil and Argentina, as well as to high input costs.
Poultry and pig meat production, which grew by 14 percent per year and 5 percent per year, respectively, over the last decade, are projected to average growth in the 2 percent per year range to 2021. In general, developing countries will account for 77 percent of additional meat production growth during the period to 2021. Poultry production will continue to grow at the fastest rate (2.2 percent per year) compared to other meats, and will have overtaken pig meat by the end of 2021 with the highest production volume. By 2021, poultry meat production will likely reach more than 127 million metric tons, compared to pig meat’s nearly 126 million metric tons.
As with demand for eggs, much of the global consumption of meat will be in Asia and Pacific countries, which are projected to make up 56 percent of the increase in meat demand between 2009-11 and 2021. The rise in meat consumption globally between 2009-11 and 2021 will also shift the goods consumers choose. By 2021, consumers in developed countries will select poultry meat as 90 percent of their extra meat, except for in Eastern Europe. Consumers’ purchases in developing countries, on the other hand, will reflect mixed preferences: 62 percent poultry, 19 percent pig meat, 13 percent beef and 6 percent sheep meat.
Additionally, poultry meat consumption in developed economies in 2021 will likely reach 44.7 million metric tons, whereas developing economies will consume 82.3 million metric tons of poultry meat.
While meat exports overall are projected to rise by 19 percent by 2021 compared to 2009-11, led by an expansion in poultry and beef shipments, annual trade growth overall for poultry will slow significantly relative to earlier periods. Poultry trade, which grew at an annual rate of 5.5 percent over the last decade, will grow at a rate of less than 2 percent to 2021. The largest contributors to poultry trade growth will be the U.S. and Brazil, which will account for nearly 80 percent of world poultry trade expansion by 2021. Import growth will also be led by countries in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Latin America.