Rising incomes, an expanding middle class and stronger demand for animal protein have propelled broiler production in China, Brazil and India, and combined these countries represent 85 percent of the forecasted growth in global production for 2013, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest report.
China is forecast to increase 3 percent to 14.1 million tons as consumer demand for meat protein continues to grow. However, higher feed prices are expected to dampen the rate of growth despite producers’ attempts to shift to lower-priced feed. Brazil is forecast to rise 2 percent to 13 million tons. Production is supported by improved demand and abundant feed supplies, and government support may also mitigate the full impact of rising feed costs. India is forecast to increase 8 percent higher to 3.4 million tons. Despite the past years’ outbreaks of avian influenza, the country's production is expanding rapidly on rising domestic consumption, changing culturally driven tastes and preferences and ample domestic feed supplies.
Russia is forecast to increase broiler production by 4 percent to 2.9 million tons as larger, modern facilities come into full operation, according to the USDA. Government programs are aimed at mitigating rising feed costs and supporting the construction of new poultry farms. The EU is forecast to rise 1 percent to 9.6 million tons as consumers substitute poultry for red meat. Production is expected to increase in all major EU producing countries, except France, where the industry is restructuring following the bankruptcy of the Doux poultry company, the largest exporter of broiler meat in the EU.
Argentina and Turkey's broiler production are forecast up 4 percent and 1 percent to 2 and 1.7 million tons, respectively. Production is supported by greater domestic and foreign market demand. Argentina continues to expand production with government credit, ample supplies of feed grains and a more vertically integrated and efficient sector. Turkey production is higher to meet ever-increasing regional Middle East demand, as well as to offset short domestic supplies of red meat.
The U.S., the world’s largest broiler meat producer, is forecast to decline 1 percent to 16.3 million tons on tighter margins due to higher feed costs, said the USDA. Thailand is forecast to reduce output 6 percent to 1.5 million tons after 2011's supply glut and 2012's higher production costs, reversing the recent growth trend.