United States shell egg exports to Canada and Mexico averaged just over 48,000 cases per month for the first seven months of 2012. The egg shortage in Mexico caused by the avian influenza outbreaks created an opportunity for U.S. producers. In October, the U.S. exported nearly 342,000 cases of shell eggs to other North American countries, primarily Mexico. U.S. shell egg exports to Mexico and Canada averaged just over 243,000 cases per month for the last four months of 2012.
Total U.S. shell egg and egg products exports went over 5 percent of total U.S. egg production in the months of September and October of 2012. These exports helped to keep U.S. egg prices at profitable levels last fall, according to Egg Industry Center estimates, in spite of extremely high feed costs. But it seems that the size of the U.S. layer flock got a little too big in February of this year, when the Egg Industry Center estimates that average returns were negative for the industry. The average number of layers on hand in January of 2013 was 5.1 million head higher than in January 2012, and the hatch of layer chicks continues to run higher this year than last.
Easter should provide its annual egg price spike in March, but from April on will likely bring tougher times for U.S. egg producers. We all hope for good news on the avian influenza front from Mexico, and it would be risky for U.S. egg producers to count on egg exports to remain at above normal levels. We all pray for better growing conditions in the Corn Belt this year, but many analysts say that $5 per bushel corn is here to stay, even with a good harvest this year. It probably isn’t a good time for U.S. egg producers to bet on stronger than usual export demand, because with high grain prices, there is a lot of downside risk.
