Poultry production is expected to increase in 2014, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on May 10, offers the agency's first look into poultry production for the upcoming calendar year.
Broiler and turkey production are forecast higher as lower forecast feed prices are expected to encourage flock expansion, despite current lower poultry prices. Those prices are projected to drop further, based off of anticipated expanded production.
Broiler forecast for 2014
Broiler production is expected to grow in 2014 to 38.4 billion pounds, compared to the current 2013 forecast of 37.3 billion.
Trade forecasts look for exports to jump to 7.55 million pounds in 2014, a 241,000 pound increase from the projected figure for 2013. Imports are expected to remain steady at 112,000 pounds.
The 2014 forecast for ending broiler stocks is at 640,000 pounds, which is a 5,000 pound increase from 2013's projection, but a 11,000 pound drop from the levels recorded in 2012.
Turkey forecast for 2014
Turkey production in the following year will see a jump of nearly 294,000 pounds from the 2013 estimate, reaching nearly 6.2 million pounds. Exports will jump to 840,000 pounds, while imports will remain mostly steady at 20,000 pounds.
Ending stocks will see a 10,000 pound increase to 310,000. Ending stocks reported in 2012 were tallied at 296,000 pounds.
Poultry prices expected to drop
According to the USDA estimates, broiler prices will drop from the $1.03 average price per pound in the first quarter of 2013 to the range of 87 to 95 cents for the first quarter in 2014. However, they will edge up about one cent for the yearly average . The price, while raised for the second quarter of 2013, is forecast to decline gradually each quarter for the remainder of the year.
Turkey prices for the first quarter of 2014 are expected to reach 90 to 98 cents per pound, but rebound to 95 cents to $1.02 for the yearly average. The present forecast for the remainder of the second quarter of 2013 is 98 cents to $1.
Adjustments from April forecast
The USDA lowered its forecast for 2013 broiler and turkey production from its estimates released in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, based off of lower hatchery and chick placements to date, as well as lower poult placements.
Broiler production estimates were backed off from 37.5 billion pounds to 37.3 billion pounds. Projections of exports increased by 59,000 pounds, but import and ending stocks projections remained unchanged.
Turkey production estimates declined from 6 million pounds to 5.88 million pounds. Imports were raised by 1,000 pounds, while export estimates declined by 17,000 pounds. Ending stocks estimates remained unchanged at 300,000 pounds.