The market is looking pretty good for the U.S. broiler industry in the remaining months of 2013 and into 2014, economist Jim Robb said, especially when compared to other proteins that will struggle during that time period. Robb, director and senior agriculture economist at the livestock marketing information center, offered a comparative analysis on July 22 during the Chicken Marketing Seminar, hosted by the National Chicken Council.
The turkey industry is facing what some call the worst year on record. While there is some level of optimism for the future in the turkey industry, Robb is not convinced. At the present time, the demand is not very high for the full holiday bird or for the sliced product, and pulling back production is only doing so much good.
"It's going to be a struggle to get this thing glued back together. For those of you competing with the turkey side, I'd say 'go at it.' For those of you in the turkey business, it's going to be a bit of a struggle," said Robb.
Demand for ground turkey is better, Robb added, but the industry has taken some of the product it doesn't have an avenue for and forced it into the ground market. "That's not necessarily a value-added product," Robb said.
The U.S. broiler industry will also have fewer worries when it compares itself with the beef industry, as recent droughts have caused a shorter domestic supply, which Robb expects to continue to shrink in 2014. With Mexico and Canada also facing drought problems, imports are also affected. The U.S. imports more cattle from those countries than any others, Robb said.
"The Mexicans have mined their beef cow herd to the level that they no longer have a sustainable beef industry. Those cattle are no longer available to the U.S. That means you will probably see a half-million year-to-year decline in the amount of Mexican feeder cattle coming north this year, and a year from now you could it could approach a 1 million head year-to-year decline," Robb said.
