Projections for global poultry, egg markets as world population grows

Higher demand for poultry meat and eggs around the world in the next decade will largely be driven by income growth and rapid population growth in the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, and generally other developing regions. A growing population with changing diets will require more animal proteins overall in the near future, but at a higher cost than in the previous decade with input costs rising and production slowing.

Higher demand for poultry meat and eggs around the world in the next decade will largely be driven by income growth and rapid population growth in the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, and generally other developing regions. A growing population with changing diets will require more animal proteins overall in the near future, but at a higher cost than in the previous decade with input costs rising and production slowing. Eventually, however, production, trade and per capita consumption of all meats will slow in comparison to the previous decade.

Compared to production percentage of 2.3 percent for all meats from 2003-12, meat production will slow to a rate of 1.6 percent annually from 2013-22. Poultry meat, produced at a rate of 3.7 percent annually in the previous decade, will fall to 1.9 percent per year from 2013-22 (Table 1). Production decreases will depend on input costs, such as the rising prices of grains for animal feed as well as the impact from disease outbreaks like avian influenza.

Developing countries' share of future poultry meat output

In spite of the overall slowdown in production, developing countries will account for the greatest change in poultry meat production in 2022 compared to the average in 2010-12, says the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). In 2022, developing countries will hold a 31.8 percent greater share of poultry production compared to 2010-22, while other OECD countries and the world will hold 14 percent and 24.6 percent, respectively (Figure 1). Overall, developing countries will account for 80 percent of additional meat output to 2022.

Likewise to overall meat production, per capita consumption of all meats is projected by FAO to fall in the decade from 2013-22 compared to the previous decade of 2003-12. Even though it is projected to slow, meat consumption remains one of the fastest-growing agricultural commodities. Per-capita poultry consumption will slow from an average of 2.5 percent annually from 2003-12 to 0.9 percent per year from 2013-22, FAO projects. Although an overall slowdown in meat consumption over the next decade is forecast compared to the previous decade, poultry meat will account for the greatest increase in percentage share of meat consumed in 2022 compared to the average of 2003-13 (Figure 2). The share of additional poultry meat consumed in 2022 will be nearly 47 percent, compared with the additional shares of pig, beef and sheep meats to be consumed in 2022, at 32 percent, 18 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

The slowing in meat production and consumption globally falls in line with a projected slowdown in the world's population growth rate in the longer term. According to the United Nations, the world's growth rate is projected to slow from an average of 1.04 percent per year over the period 2015-20 to 0.51 percent per year during the period of 2045-50, while the growth rates of developing countries will account for the majority of the increase in the world's population to 2050.

With its aging population, Europe is projected to slow from growth of 0.01 percent in the 2015-20 period to -0.22 percent by 2045-50. In contrast, growth rates in emerging economies, such as Africa and Oceania, are projected to remain well above the world's average growth rate. For example, Africa is projected to grow at a rate of 2.36 percent per year over 2015-20 slowing to 1.74 percent annually from 2045-50; Oceania has the second-highest growth rate over the projection period, set to grow at 1.33 percent annually from 2015-20, and slowing to 0.82 percent per year from 2045-50 (Figure 3).

China key to growth in agricultural products

A key region for growth in the demand for agricultural products in the future, specifically in the demand for animal proteins like poultry meat, pig meat and eggs, will be China - a country that now holds one-fifth of the world's total population. In 2013, the world will be home to nearly 7.162 million people; less-developed regions, excluding China, will account for some 4.5 million of these people, while more-developed regions will hold just 1.253 billion. By comparison, China's population in 2013 will exceed 1.385 billion, the United Nations estimates. This trend is expected to continue through 2050, when developing countries are projected to hold more than 6.83 billion of the world's total population of 9.56 billion (Figure 4). Again, China is projected to house nearly 1.385 billion people in 2050, which exceeds the projected total population of 1.3 billion in all more-developed countries.

Dietary changes in China have narrowed the gap in consumption of animal proteins and amount of calories compared to other higher-income developed countries. On average in 1997-99, for instance, a total of 34.2 kg of meat per person was consumed, 8 kg of which comprised poultry products and the majority of which, 23.6 kg, comprised pig meat. In 2011-13, 44.3 kg of meat are estimated to be consumed per person in China, including 11.4 kg of poultry. And, in 2022, consumption of meat per person in China will grow to 51.5 kg on average, including 13.6 kg of poultry products and 34.1 kg of pig meat (Table 2). Over the same periods, real meat prices in the region will remain high in the short term as a result of demand pressure and income growth, but real prices will ease by 2022. Poultry meat prices in the region reached their low of CNY14.6 (USD2.38) per kilogram over the period from 2004-06 and are expected to reach a high of CNY19.4 (USD3.17) per kilogram from 2011-13, but fall to 17.3 (USD2.82) per kilogram by 2022, providing some relief for Chinese consumers.

In the United States, a major producer of both poultry meat and eggs, prices for these goods are forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to increase 3 percent to 4 percent for consumers, who are already faced with economic constraints. The price of poultry jumped 5.6 percent from January 2012 to January 2013. Production of broilers and turkeys is projected to increase only slightly in 2013 and 2014, along with the production of eggs (Table 3). 

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