Global broiler meat production nears 85 million metric tons with growth in US, Thailand, Russia

Although slowing, growth in meat production over the next decade will be dominated by developing countries, which will comprise nearly 80 percent of additional output of all meats by 2022. World meat production will grow at a slower pace than the previous decade's growth of 1.6 percent annually as a result of higher input costs, such as feed and energy, as well as high competition for natural resources.

Specifically, poultry meat production is projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to see the largest slowdown. In the past decade, poultry meat overtook pig meat as the world's largest meat sector on a retail-weight basis (Figure 1). After growing by 3.7 percent per year over the last decade, growth in global poultry meat output is projected to slow to 1.9 percent per year over the decade to 2022, reaching nearly 129 million metric tons or 37 percent of the global meat supply, according to FAO. Pig meat production, in contrast, is forecast to grow 1.4 percent over the next decade to reach 127 million metric tons, or 36 percent of the world's meat supply. U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) projections also show a slowing down trend in global poultry production over the next decade, but place production lower in 2022 at nearly 115 million metric tons (Figure 2).

Production gains from economies of scale to be realized in developing countries

Most gains in poultry production over the next decade will come from increasing productivity in developing countries and economies of scale, such as in Asia (Figure 3). In many of the BRIC economies, continued gains in productivity are expected from technology adaptation and diffusion, as well as improvements in cold-chain management.

In China, poultry meat production is estimated on the high side by FAO at nearly18 million metric tons in 2013 and 18.5 million metric tons in 2014, growing to nearly 21.5 million metric tons by 2022 (Figure 4). This still remains about one-third of the country's projected production of pig meat in 2022 of 60.4 million metric tons.

As a result of shrinking demand, production of poultry meat in Brazil is estimated lower by USDA ERS at 12.8 million metric tons. In contrast, the production forecast for Russia in 2013 is raised to 3 million metric tons thanks to increased government supports and growing demand fueled by a growing preference for value-added products (Table 1). In Thailand, higher domestic and foreign demand also will boost poultry production in 2013 to an estimated 1.6 million metric tons.

The United States will produce nearly a record 17 million metric tons of broiler meat in 2013 as a result of better prices, with feed costs expected to begin falling at the end of 2013, and higher bird weights. USDA long-term projections show growth in young chicken and turkey production of 1.6 and 1.4 percent, respectively, for 2014 and even greater gains of 2.2 and 2.6 percent, respectively, for U.S. production in 2015 (Table 2).

Overall EU production in 2013 will reach 9.6 million metric tons on estimates from USDA ERS that expansions in Germany and Poland will be offset by greater declines in France and the UK. In spite of higher feed costs and costs of bio-security measures in response to avian influenza outbreaks, Mexico is estimated to produce nearly 3 million metric tons of poultry meat.

In an effort to keep up with its growing population, poultry meat production in Africa will continue to grow, which may ultimately positively affect the region's demand and living standards. Nigeria and Morocco remain the continent's highest producing nations by head, followed by South Africa. In terms of volume, however, South Africa is the largest producer in Africa with output of 1.5 million metric tons of chicken meat. The country is followed by Egypt, which produces 685,000 metric tons annually, Morocco at 560,000 metric tons, Nigeria at 268,000 metric tons and Algeria's production of 254,000 metric tons from a flock of 125 million head. Another African country, Ghana, produces nearly 51,675 metric tons of poultry meat from its flock of more than 47 million head.