By 2022, world meat exports are forecast by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to grow by 19 percent or 1.6 percent annually, a slowdown compared to the previous decade when exports grew by 4.3 percent per year from 2003-12. Nonetheless, growth in meat trade over the next decade will be driven by poultry meat and bovine meat exports, which together will comprise 80 percent of the additional trade from 2013-22. Through 2022, much growth in trade of beef will come from developing countries, while both developed and developing regions will account for growth in poultry meat exports. In 2022, world poultry meat exports are projected by FAO to reach 7.7 million metric tons from developing regions and 6.2 million metric tons from developed regions, compared to the averages of 6.7 million metric tons and 5.2 million metric tons, respectively, in these regions for 2010-12 (Table 1).
In 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) projects world poultry meat trade volume will near 10.9 million metric tons, and USDA projects trade volume will grow to more than 12.9 million metric tons by 2022 (Figure 1). Growth in poultry meat exports in 2014 will come from five main regions: Brazil, the United States, European Union, Thailand and China (Figure 2).
US poultry trade sets records in 2012
The U.S. poultry industry experienced records for broiler, turkey and egg exports in 2012-13, according to Jim Sumner, president of the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council. Currently, the U.S. is exporting nearly 21 percent of all broilers produced domestically based on tonnage, more than 13 percent of total turkey production and more than 4 percent of total egg production, with growth expected to continue over the next decade. In May, U.S. shell-egg exports totaled more than 24 million dozen, which is nearly double the 12 million dozen exported in May 2012 (Figure 3). June egg and egg product shipments in the U.S. were also up from the same month in 2012 thanks to strong demand from Mexico, which received 10.6 million dozen eggs of the 33.6 million dozen shipped from the U.S., a 1,300 percent increase from June 2012 as the country continues to face delays in rebuilding its layer flocks following earlier avian influenza outbreaks.
By 2022, poultry meat exports will be dominated by the U.S. and Brazil, which will generate two-thirds of the expansion over the next decade. Additionally, substantial investments by Ukraine's private sector will help fulfill a growing demand in that country's domestic and export markets. By 2022, developing countries will account for the largest share of poultry meat exports relative to total exports (Figure 4).
Middle East, Asia lead growth in poultry imports
World poultry import growth over the next decade will be predominantly led by countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. In 2014, Japan will import nearly 876,000 metric tons of poultry meat, Saudi Arabia will import an estimated 781,000 metric tons and other Middle East nations will import a combined 1.3 million metric tons of poultry meat (Figure 5). Russia, once among the world's largest importers, is projected by USDA to import 414,000 metric tons of poultry meat in 2014 as a result of higher domestic production.
In China, strong meat prices over the next decade will coincide with increased meat exports, driven by population and income growth combined with income elasticity of demand from slowing production of animal proteins. Poultry meat trade is expected to follow the trend in increasing meat imports overall in China, which are projected to reach 1.7 million metric tons by 2022 at an average growth rate of 3 percent per year. In 2014, China is forecast to import 499,000 metric tons of poultry meat, just slightly down from 2013, while growing imports to nearly 560,000 metric tons by 2022 (Figure 6).
In the European Union, imports of eggs are down significantly for most countries. From January to April 2013, the EU imported fewer eggs compared to the same period in 2012 from the U.S., Argentina and Mexico, while only increasing imports from India (Table 2). EU exports of eggs rose most notably from January to April 2013 compared to January to April 2012 to the United Arab Emirates and Russia, while falling slightly in other Asian countries such as Japan and Taiwan.
