The biggest wheat price rally to start the year since at least 1960 will soon end, analysts say, as the world’s farmers are growing more wheat than ever.
Global stockpiles of wheat on May 31 will be 5.8 percent larger than a year earlier, a Bloomberg survey of 15 analysts showed. Informa Economics Inc. says output will then rise to a record, despite smaller U.S. and Black Sea crops.
Farmers in the U.S., which is the top exporter, account for less of the world wheat after 10 years of output gains in other countries. Canada, the No. 2 exporter, will see inventories double to a two-decade high, and bigger crops are forecast from Australia, Argentina and across Europe. Morgan Stanley predicts price gains will stall, and Goldman Sachs forecast a drop of 24 percent by mid-October.
“We’re in a market that is being driven by fear at the present, and prices have been diverging away from fundamentals,” Christopher Gadd, a commodities analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd., said in a report. “We are going to see a big harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, despite the losses in the U.S.”