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News and analysis on the global poultry
and animal feed industries.
Feed Mill Management
on January 25, 2015

IGC: World grain stocks to end season at 30-year high

IGC adjusts forecast after upgrading to a record high in its corn harvest estimate

The International Grains Council (IGC) expects world grain stocks to hit their highest level in some 30 years, deviating from an earlier forecast of a drop in world grains output for the year.

The upgraded inventory figure represents a gain of 30 million metric tons year-on-year, and the most since the mid-1980s, the council said.

The raised forecast for global grain inventories, comprising of stocks of wheat and coarse grains, reflected an upgrade of 12 million metric tons to 2.002 billion metric tons. The largest factor in the changed forecast was due to an upgrade to a record high in its corn harvest estimate, Agrimoney reported.

The estimate for world corn output in 2014-15 was hiked by 10 million metric tons to 992 million metric tons, which would make it the largest harvest on record. The IGC highlighted "bigger-than-previously-forecast corn crops in Argentina, Brazil, the European Union and Ukraine."

IGC, USDA figures differ

The revised IGC data for corn in slightly shows a divergence on estimates for world corn inventories between the IGC and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The USDA's estimate for corn stocks is, at 189.2 million metric tons, approximately 3 million metric tons lower than the IGC estimate.

USDA and IGC agree on wheat inventories, with both anticipating a harvest reaching 196 million metric tons.

On soybeans, the IGC’s year-end stocks were projected at 42 million metric tons, significantly less upbeat than the USDA, which sees inventories finishing the season at 90.8 million metric tons.

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