According to the USDA/FAS International Egg and Poultry Review of November 1, 2011, the world broiler meat production is forecast to reach 83.1 million MT in 2012, a 3% rise over 2011. The increase, which is attributed to strong domestic demand in Brazil and China, is expected to be slightly lower than that of the preceding two years, due to high input costs and reductions in U.S. production. World exports of broiler meat are projected to increase 5% to a record 9.6 million MT, due to rising demand from Sub Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
Brazil: Production is forecast to be 13.6 million MT. The 5% rise over 2011 is credited to the competitive pricing of poultry to other meats, strong domestic demand, economic growth, enlarging disposable incomes, an expanding middle class and steady production costs resulting from ample feed supplies. Exports are projected to increase 5% in 2012 to 3.5 million MT fueled by shipments to the Middle East and Venezuela. Brazilian imports are also expected to increase to the UAE with the construction of a new Brazilian processing facility in the country.
China: Production is forecast at 13.8 million MT. The 5% rise over the year before is supported by larger breeding stock inventories, poultry’s competitive pricing, robust domestic demand, increasing disposable incomes, economic growth, a growing middle class, reduced rates of reported diseases, and improving economies of scale through vertical integration. In the period exports are expected to grow 9% to 445,000 MT and comprises mostly primarily prepared and preserved products due to its history and current status of disease outbreaks and their subsequent restrictions.
EU: Broiler exports from the block are projected to reach 1.1 million MT. The 2% rise in 2012 exports is due to high feed costs, increased competition, and reduced shipments to Russia.
Mexico: The broiler meat production is predicted to drop 1% to 2.9 million MT, with high production costs are credited with being the cause of the reduction.
Russia: Broiler production is projected 9% higher to 2.8 million MT. Subsidized feed costs, import restrictions and continued investment are helping to drive the increase. Russia continues to reduce its tariff rate quota (TRQ) volumes limiting imports and supporting domestic production.
U.S.: Production is projected to drop 1% in 2012 to 16.6 million MT due to constrained profitability resulting from low broiler prices in the face of high input costs. The exports are projected to rebound 2% in 2012 to 3 million MT, which are fueled by strong demand from Mexico, Asia (primarily South Korea and Hong Kong) and emerging markets in Sub Saharan Africa despite declining exports to Russia, due to a reduced TRQ.
Others: Broiler production is also forecast higher in Argentina, Thailand, Turkey and Ukraine in 2012 driven by a strong domestic and foreign demand, increasing investment, and good profitability.Thailand is expected to export 500,000 MT of broiler meat in 2012, which is 9% higher than the previous year. Shipments will continue to be prepared and preserved products to mostly Asian markets, as well as to the EU. Turkey broiler meat exports are expected to reach 193,000 MT in 2012, which is an increase of 27%. Strong demand from the Middle East, mostly Iraq and Iran, will support the expansion of domestic production and generate the rise in broiler meat exports.