Avian influenza will have a big impact on global poultry trade in 2015, according to a new report on the global poultry industry issued by Rabobank.
In the report, published by Rabobank's Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory group, the bank stated regions affected by avian influenza outbreaks, like Europe and Canada, will suffer from lost export markets and this will affect local prices.
However, Rabobank pointed out that the poultry industry outlook for 2015 for non-affected regions like Brazil and U.S. remains strong. Those regions could benefit from ongoing bullish market conditions such as strong demand, low feed costs and high competing meat prices, and therefore capture some export market share from Europe and Canada.
"A key concern for the coming months is the spread of avian flu, which has become a global issue in recent months. Several avian flu strains are already endemic in several parts of Asia and Mexico, and the disease is increasingly spreading globally via wild birds," said Rabobank analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder.
Rabobank said that avian influenza virus pressure will become a global issue for the industry after new high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in the European Union, Canada, India and Egypt add to existing cases in East Asia and Mexico. Affected regions will therefore continue to suffer from economic damage and temporary lost export markets with lower local prices especially for dark meat. In the longer term, Rabobank advises, industries need to prepare for ongoing disease pressure, especially in times of bird migration. This will require higher levels of biosecurity and reconsideration of existing business models.