Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at the CME Group, presented his “Global Economy and Oilseeds Outlook 2015-20” during the Oilseed and Grain Trade Summit in Minneapolis on September 30. Key takeaways from his presentation include:
- There have been 11 El Ninos and 8 La Ninas since 1959. On average, El Ninos, like the one we are experiencing this year, have boosted prices for agriculture commodities while La Ninas have depressed them.
- Africa’s population is projected to increase 70 percent, which could represent the biggest opportunity for food producers worldwide. India and Bangladesh also will see large increases; Brazil and the U.S. will continue to grow, but below the world average; and China’s population will stagnate and decline.
- The potential increases in consumption are the greatest where people consume the least calories and where population growth is the highest, such as India and Africa.
- Africa has the greatest potential for population growth. The continent has a very small population of older residents, while it has a very large population of very young residents.
- Africa has been encouraged to grow in the past decade because of high commodity prices.
- Behind Africa, India is expected to see large population growth.