Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at the CME Group, presented his “Global Economy and Oilseeds Outlook 2015-20” during the Oilseed and Grain Trade Summit in Minneapolis on September 30. Key takeaways from his presentation include:


  1. There have been 11 El Ninos and 8 La Ninas since 1959. On average, El Ninos, like the one we are experiencing this year, have boosted prices for agriculture commodities while La Ninas have depressed them.
  2. Africa’s population is projected to increase 70 percent, which could represent the biggest opportunity for food producers worldwide. India and Bangladesh also will see large increases; Brazil and the U.S. will continue to grow, but below the world average; and China’s population will stagnate and decline.
  3. The potential increases in consumption are the greatest where people consume the least calories and where population growth is the highest, such as India and Africa.
  4. Africa has the greatest potential for population growth. The continent has a very small population of older residents, while it has a very large population of very young residents.
  5. Africa has been encouraged to grow in the past decade because of high commodity prices.
  6. Behind Africa, India is expected to see large population growth.