Russia is expected to see lower grain production for the 2016-17 growing season, while Canada’s production is expected to increase, according to reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Global Agricultural Information Network.

The report says that, assuming average weather conditions during the growing season, Russia’s grain and pulses production should hit 101 million metric tons (mmt), a 2 percent decrease from 2015, but higher than the previous five-year average of 93 mmt.

The expected production by crop is as follows:

  • Wheat: 58 mmt, 3 mmt lower than 2015, but higher than the five-year average of 53 mmt
  • Corn: 12.5 mmt, 0.7 mmt less than 2015
  • Barley: 18 mmt, 1 mmt lower than 2015
  • Rye: 2.5 mmt
  • Oats: 4.8 mmt
  • Milled rice: 0.73 mmt
  • Other grains and pulses: 4 mmt

Russia’s grain exports for 2016-17 are forecast at 30 mmt, which is 1.6 mmt less than the 2015-16 estimated exports of 31.6 mmt.

Forecast for Canada

Total production of wheat, barley, corn and oats for Canada are expected to reach 53.6 mmt, a 1.5 percent increase from 2015-16.

The outlook by crop is as follows:

  • Wheat: 4 percent increase
  • Barley: 1.3 percent increase
  • Corn: 1.6 percent decrease
  • Oats: 5.9 percent increase

Total imports are forecast to fall nearly 5 percent due to mainly to higher domestic supplies of barley in 2016-17. Total exports, mainly wheat, are forecast to drop nearly 9 percent due to lower domestic supplies and lower carry-in of wheat. Wheat ending stocks are projected to drop to a record low.