The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its newest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on August 12.
Key figures for wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds, and livestock, poultry and dairy include:
- Projected U.S. wheat imports are lowered 5 million bushels on larger supplies of U.S. spring wheat.
- All wheat exports for 2016-17 are projected 25 million bushels higher to 950 million on expectations of an improved competitive situation and a sharp reduction of EU wheat production, which is expected to benefit North American suppliers.
- Feed and residual use is raised 30 million bushels on the larger domestic crop. The increased use offsets the higher supplies and ending stocks are slightly lower.
- Global wheat supplies for 2016-17 are raised 2.3 million tons on a 4.9-million production increase that is partially offset by a decrease in beginning stocks.
- Global trade is raised 2.3 million tons on larger global supplies.
- Russia exports are raised 4.5 million tons to a record 30.0 million on the sharp production increase. Russia is projected to be the world’s largest wheat exporter for the first time.
- Argentina exports are also lowered 1.0 million tons on reduced production and lower beginning stocks.
- Global use is up 3.2 million tons led by a 1.0 million-ton increase in Russia feed use, a 0.8 million-ton increase in U.S. feed use, and a 0.4 million-ton increase in Afghanistan food use.
- Corn production is forecast at a record 15.2 billion bushels, up 613 million from the July projection.
- U.S. corn supplies for 2016-17 are projected at a record 16.9 billion bushels, up 1.5 billion from the prior year with the larger crop and small increases in beginning stocks and imports.
- Corn use for ethanol production in 2015-16 is lowered 25 million bushels, based on the latest indications from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report.
- Total U.S. corn use for 2016-17 is projected 300 million bushels higher at a record 14.5 billion.
- Feed and residual use is raised 175 million bushels with the larger crop and lower expected prices.
- Exports are projected 125 million bushels higher, reflecting the relative competitiveness of U.S. corn on the world market and large new-crop outstanding sales.
- Corn ending stocks for 2016-17 are projected 328 million bushels higher and, if realized, would be the highest since 1987-88.
- Foreign coarse grain supplies for 2016-17 are projected 5.1 million tons higher this month with a 2.3 million-ton increase in beginning stocks and a 3.0 million-ton increase in production.
- Foreign corn production for 2016-17 is raised 2.1 million tons with increases for Argentina, India and Mexico more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Canada.
- Global 2016-17 coarse grain ending stocks are projected 13.4 million tons higher reflecting larger corn and barley stocks.
- Global corn stocks are projected 12.4 million tons higher with the United States accounting for two-thirds of the increase.
- U.S. oilseed production for 2016-17 is projected at 120.2 million tons, up 4.8 million from last month due to a higher soybean production forecast.
- Soybean production for 2016-17 is forecast at 4,060 million bushels, up 180 million due to increased yields.
- Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels based on expected higher domestic use and exports of soybean meal.
- Soybean exports are raised 30 million bushels to 1,950 million.
- The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 to 32.5 cents per pound.
- Soybean exports are raised 85 million bushels to 1,880 million as unusually large outstanding old-crop sales are confirmed by the latest shipment data.
- 2015-16 ending stocks are projected at 255 million bushels, down 95 million from last month.
- Global oilseed production for 2016-17 is projected at 543.5 million tons, up 7.0 million from last month.
- Global soybean production is projected at a record 330.4 million tons, up 4.5 million.
- Global oilseed supplies for 2016-17 are raised 8.1 million tons with increased production and higher beginning stocks.
- 2016-17 global oilseed stocks are projected at 80.6 million tons, up 4.5 million from last month.
Livestock, poultry and dairy
- Broiler production is lowered on slower expected growth in the fourth quarter.
- Turkey production is raised for 2016, largely on June production data.
- Table egg production is raised for 2016 on June production data; the 2017 forecast is unchanged.
- Pork production for 2016 is lowered on expectations of slightly lighter carcass weights for the remainder of the year.
- Beef production is forecast higher on higher expected third quarter steer and heifer slaughter.
- The milk production forecast for 2016 is lowered from last month as growth in milk per cow is reduced.
- The production forecast for 2017 is raised as higher forecast milk prices and lower feed costs in late 2016 and 2017 are expected to lead to a modest expansion in the cow inventory and more rapid growth in milk per cow.