While pork production in Brazil is forecast to have increased in 2016, output of poultry meat and eggs declined, according to the latest estimates from the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA).
In an early assessment of the country’s poultry and pig meat sectors, ABPA’s chief executive, Francisco Turra, forecasts that, compared with 2015, Brazilian chicken production will be 1.8 percent lower at 12.9 million metric tons (mmt), and egg output down by 0.8 percent at 39.1 billion. In contrast, he expects pork production to have increased by 2.4 percent to 3.7 mmt.
According to Turra, 2016 has ended better for poultry and pig farmers than it began. He highlighted the falling cost of corn (maize), which has now fallen to less than 40 Brazilian reales (BRL; US$11.95) for a 60 kilogram bag. At times earlier this year, it had exceeded BRL60. Pressure on Brazilian producers’ feed costs was relieved by falling prices in Paraguay and Argentina, and the authorization of imports from the US. The situation was eased further by foreign exchange movements that favored poultry and pork exporters.
On the other hand, the country’s economic crisis during the year had negative impacts on the sector, as it led to rising unemployment and suppressed domestic spending, according to ABPA.
These adverse effect on the poultry sector can be measured by the fact that, at one point, Brazilian chicken meat production had been expected to reach 13.6 mmt, well above the current forecast of 12.9 mmt.
Looking ahead to 2017, Turra forecasts that continued economic recovery at home should lead to a recovery in Brazilian protein consumption to the per-capita levels seen in 2015. There are also promising prospects for further export growth.
Brazilian chicken meat production forecast higher for 2017
Lack of credit, high input costs and the economic crisis in Brazil were blamed by ABPA for the reduction in total chicken meat output in 2016. The forecast volume – 12.9mmt – is 1.8 percent lower than the 13.1 mmt achieved in 2015.
Domestic demand is expected to have fallen 4 percent in 2016 from the previous year at 8.47 mmt. This would put annual per-capita intake at 41.1 kg, which is 2.1 kg or 4.9 percent below the 2015 index.
ABPA forecasts a rise of between 3 and 5 percent in Brazilian chicken production next year.
Pork production increased in 2016
Compared to the 3.6 mmt achieved in 2015, ABPA forecasts total pig meat output by its producers up by 2.4 percent in 2016 at 3.7 mmt.
Consumption in Brazil accounted for an estimated 2.9 mmt pork this year, which would put the national average at 14.4 kg per person and year. In 2015, uptake had been 3.5 percent higher at 3.1 mmt, or 15.2 kg per person.
Looking ahead to 2017, ABPA forecasts a 2 percent rise in pig meat production.
Little change in egg production in Brazil
ABPA expects egg production to be around 39.1 billion in 2016, 0.8 percent below the 2015 level of 39.5 billion. This would put annual per-capita consumption at 190 eggs (191 eggs in 2015).
The association forecast total output to rise 2 percent next year.