World broiler production to increase 1 percent in 2018

Global production and exports of broiler meat are expected to increase in 2018, while China will continue to struggle with the harsh reality of avian influenza.

kharhan, Bigstock.com
kharhan, Bigstock.com

Global broiler production is forecast to grow 1 percent in 2018 to 91.3 million tons, primarily from gains in the United States, Brazil, India, and the European Union,” according to the Livestock & Poultry: World Markets & Trade report recently released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The European Union and India are projected to slow down in production, while the United States and Brazil will continue with growth.

Internationally, along with production, exports will also show growth. 2018 exports are predicted in increase 3 percent to 11.4 million tons, according to the report. With some of Brazils’ competitors being negatively impacted by avian influenza and associated trade restraints limiting their exports, Brazil is predicted to increase exports by 4 percent in 2018. This is after they struggled early in 2017 due to quality issues.

China continues to struggle with avian influenza

As China continues to struggle with the effects of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), its production will continue to decrease in 2018 by an estimated 5 percent. This is the third year in a row that China will encounter a slower growth pattern in production; in 2017 and 2016 China saw declines of 6 and 8 percent.

HPAI has not only effected China’s production numbers but it has also diminished genetic availability and weakened customer demand in the country. The influence of HPAI on Chinas’ producers has been diverse. “Some report online minor impacts, due to improved biosecurity, while others have incurred higher losses due to depopulation, closures of traditional wet markets, and soft consumer demand,” said Tyler Cozzens, agriculture economist with the USDA.

Genetics will continue to be a limiting factor for China. The U.S. previously supplied China with all of its grandparent stock. After the U.S. HPAI outbreak in 2014-2015 and China’s import restrictions, the country has been getting stock from France. However, outbreaks in France in 2016 forced China to again change sourcing. China is now trying to source its own genetics and struggling the report explained.

Due to this, the USDA report forecast that China will import 7 percent more broiler meat in 2018. The report suggest that Brazil may capitalize on China’s struggle. Until 2009, the U.S. supplied 75 percent of the market share for broiler meat. Due to China’s burden of anti-dumping and countervailing duties combined with the HPAI restriction, U.S. shipments were stopped, Cozzens explained. Brazil became China's main supplier in 2010 with less than 40 percent of the market share; as of 2016 Brazil has 90 percent of the market share as is expected to continue to lead in China, Cozzens concluded.

U.S. broiler market

Broiler production in the U.S. is set to rise 2 percent and meet a new record of 19 million tons in 2018, according to the report. Along with production, exports are expected to rise 3 percent to 3.2 million tons. Unlike China, the U.S. is not feeling the repercussions of avian influenza as dramatically. Since August 2017 there have been no HPAI instances. This will help with continued exports along with higher export demand from Mexico the report explained.

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