Hog futures may decline 33% by year-end, according to Bloomberg. They could average 30 cents to 32 cents a pound on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in November on account of surplus supply.
U.S. exports fell 20% in the first half and are forecast to register their first annual decline since 1990 after Aprils swine flu outbreak triggered China and Russia to restrict imports.
On the brighter side, Russia lifted H1N1-related embargos on 12 of 13 states and South Korea began live hog imports from North America on August 12.
USDA data, however, shows that U.S. exports to Russia and China dipped 38% and 73%, respectively, as those countries boosted domestic production.
Global U.S. pork exports in the first half of 2009 but were still 46% more than the same period in 2007 by value.
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