The African swine fever (ASF) epidemic in China and Southeast Asia will dramatically reduce pork production in Asia and increase demand for exports of all meats from other regions. The disease outbreak not only has immediate-term consequences, but also the impact will shape the global economy and the future market landscape for meat production.

Agribusiness analysts with Rabobank, the world's leading financial services provider for the food and agribusiness sector, predict ASF will cause a dynamic shift in global trade patterns to meet animal protein demands, creating opportunities for companies with an exportable surplus and access to China and Southeast Asia. It will also create logistical inefficiencies and raise costs through the entire supply chain.

Global protein supply outlook

Rabobank expects Chinese pork production losses of 25% to 35% by the end of 2019 in response to ASF. In Vietnam, production losses are projected to exceed 10%. Rabobank estimates ASF will cause a 5% to 7% drop in global protein supply — about 10 million metric tons — in 2019.  

How much will U.S. chicken and turkey industries be affected by the current outbreak of ASF? Will ASF force China to allow U.S. poultry imports once again? If there is a protein shortage in China, it could mean more opportunities for other countries to fill the demand, which may benefit chicken in terms of higher prices for the next several years. But it is unclear how long this gain will last.

Justin Sherrard, global strategist animal protein, Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research (FAR) group, will present the latest data, projections and thinking on how much pork production and global meat trade, especially poultry, will be impacted by ASF at the 2019 Chicken Marketing Summit, July 21-23.

Sherrard leads Rabobank’s global research, client engagement and profiling in the animal protein sector. His work is directed at challenging current thinking and advising companies on risks and opportunities from strategic issues on today’s and tomorrow’s CEO agendas.

Register to attend 2019 Chicken Marketing Summit

The 2019 Chicken Marketing Summit will be held at Belmond Charleston Place in Charleston, South Carolina, July 21-23. Don’t miss this opportunity to find out how ASF will impact global meat trade for the next few years and to discover how channels, choices and challengers influence consumers’ chicken purchasing behavior.

For more information and to attend, visit: www.wattglobalmedia.com/chickenmarketingsummit/

More about African swine fever

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WATTAgNet provides ongoing coverage of ASF, including analysis and outbreak information. The current outbreak crisis is anticipated to have a lasting effect across all protein segments, impact protein trade all over the world and possibly disrupt the global protein supply chain. Article topics include early symptom detection, vaccine research, biosecurity measures, trade implications and pork market conditions impacting producers’ bottom line. An RSS feed of this news also is available.