World population growth over the outlook period will slow from 1.1 percent currently to 0.9 percent by 2027, on estimates from the recent Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Agricultural Outlook. However, this slowing growth will be seen unevenly throughout the different world regions. A less-drastic slowing in developing regions like the Middle East/North Africa and projected population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will help fuel demand for poultry meat and eggs (Figure 1).
FAO projects poultry meat production to rise by nearly 18 percent in 2027 compared to the average of the base period 2015-17 (Table 1). This compares to overall meat production rising a forecasted 15 percent over the same outlook period. Developing countries will continue to be the drivers of both poultry production and consumption growth over the next decade. Worldwide, poultry meat production growth is expected to slow in the long-term. Slow volume growth is projected in poultry meat production in 2018, before leveling off by 2021, with some years of small gains and stagnating around the same levels through 2027 (Figure 2).
GDP growth in developing countries to fuel poultry market
Globally, GDP growth in 2017 recovered, averaging 3.6 percent, after 2016 saw the slowest growth rate since 2009, according to OECD-FAO projections. A recovery in the European and United States economies have FAO forecasting growth in the short term of 2.1 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, in 2018 (Figure 3). However, compared to GDP growth in the past decade, developing countries will fuel the greatest GDP increases overall from 2018-27. Among OECD countries, Turkey is forecast to see the highest growth rate over the next decade, with an average annual rate of 3.6%. In the developing country of India, GDP growth is projected to sit at 8.1 percent annually over the next 10 years. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa region is also recovering after weak crude oil markets induced a recession, according to FAO-OECD (Figure 4).
In real terms, prices are expected to decline slightly over the outlook period to 2027 while nominal prices will trend slightly upward in the short term before leveling out, according to FAO-OECD projections (Figure 5). As the spread of avian influenza is assumed to be contained, the effects of an increasing poultry flock worldwide along with slowly rising feed costs will drive a moderate poultry price increase in the medium term, with the income increases in these developing countries helping to drive demand growth in poultry.
As in many developed countries around the world, countries within the EU are anticipated to only slightly increase their poultry production by 2027. Collectively, the EU is forecast to produce 14.8 million metric tons of poultry meat in 2018, compared to a forecasted 15.3 million metric tons by 2030 (Figure 6).