Report: China has lost nearly half its pig herd to ASF

With producers in most regions taking a cautious approach to market volatility and expansion, Rabobank anticipates tight supplies and steep prices for pork by 2020.

proTsekhmister | Bigstock.com
proTsekhmister | Bigstock.com

The global impact of a massive outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in China has only just begun, according to a July report out of Rabobank in The Netherlands.

The Dutch bank estimates that China has lost about 40% of its pig herd to the disease since July 2018, with losses expected to reach 50% by the end of 2019. Some parts of China, according to Rabobank, have seen losses within range of 60% since the outbreak began.

Although some Chinese farms have already attempted to restock, these efforts have not been successful. The report anticipates that it will take at least five years for Chinese pork production to recover from the outbreak. The lack of disease prevention, as well as other challenges such as a lack of suitable land and high development costs, could further slow recovery, according to the report.  

Despite decreased demand, animal feed prices are up about 10% across most producing regions, Rabobank said.

Prices for live hogs in China have increased 40% since this time last year, and Chinese pork imports are up 41%, with imports increasing from every pork-producing region except the U.S. Steep tariffs on U.S. goods, according to Rabobank, have eroded the competitiveness of U.S. pork. The bank’s analysts expressed hope that rising demand would prompt China to lift at least some tariffs from U.S. products.

US sees growth in pork production

Despite these trends, the U.S. is the only pork-producing region to see growth in production in recent months. U.S. pork production is expected to increase nearly 6% by the end of the year, despite a looming labor shortage and the loss of market share to Europe and Canada.

Outside of the U.S., Rabobank reports that pork producers are wary of expansion, potentially leading to even tighter supplies and higher prices come 2020.

View our continuing coverage of the African swine fever outbreak.

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