Changing consumer habits and preferences is extremely hard, consequently, marketers typically spend a lot of money and efforts to convince consumers that their products are the best. Once these consumers are on board, it is usually very hard to change their minds unless there are special circumstances.
This is true for the food sector, and the current crisis with pork production and the devastating effect of African swine fever (ASF) on the pork industry may just be one of these special circumstances. After years of struggling with avian influenza, the poultry and egg sectors in Asia now have the opportunity to recover some of their lost ground.
Huge scale
The average annual per capita consumption of pork meat in Asia at 12.8 kg is only slightly above the 12.3 kg world average, but this figure can be misleading.
In China and Vietnam, both countries currently devastated by ASF, consumers have made pork their favorite source of animal protein, annually consuming 30.4 kg and 29.7 kg, respectively, slightly less than Europeans, the biggest pork consumers (35.5 kg).
China is the largest producer of pork in the world, with 54.5 million tons produced in 2017, while Vietnam is the 6 largest pork producer with 3.7 million tons. Between 2007 and 2017, pork production increased in China and Vietnam by 27% and 45.2%, respectively. The growing demand for pork in China has been so strong that despite being the world’s largest producer, it still has to rely on imports to satisfy demand, with 1.464 million tons imported in 2017, or the equivalent of the entire pork production of Italy, the world’s 13 largest producers.
African swine fever
As its name suggests, this viral disease ASF was first identified in Africa and confined for many years to the African continent, short of some brief incursions into Southern Europe.
ASF can cause up to 100% mortality and there are currently no available vaccines. Good hygiene and biosecurity measures are the only tools available to pork producers. Starting in the mid-2000s, ASF has been slowly migrating from Africa to Asia, raising concerns that it would reach the heart of pork production.
Since the first outbreak was reported in August 2018, it is estimated that China has lost about 20% of its sow population -- which is more than the total sow population in the U.S. Vietnam has also reported culling more than 4 million pigs.
For 2019, the expected shortfall in pork production in China alone will represent more than twice the total volume of global pork meat exports in 2018. Simply put, it will not be possible for other countries to make up for Asia’s production shortfall. Considering that ASF is still ravaging the countryside in many Asian countries, the anticipated effect on pork consumption will last for several years.
Consumers are likely to initially accept higher pork prices, but the growing demand for animal proteins will push them to look for alternatives to their favorite pork-based dishes.
What's this mean for the poultry industry?
Except Malaysia, with per capita poultry meat consumption of 46.9 kg, poultry meat consumption in many Asian countries is below the 14.4 kg world average, and this alone suggests room for expansion. Poultry meat is an excellent candidate to replace pork in many local dishes. Eggs have also a great role to play in providing consumers with additional animal sourced protein.
However, the switch from pork to poultry and eggs will not happen by itself. Beef, mutton and fish are also alternatives. Poultry and egg producers in Asian countries must pool their resources to design and implement impactful marketing campaigns targeting this newly available market segment. Now is the time to join forces and work together to remind consumers that poultry meat and eggs are protein options to include in a well balanced meal.
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