Meat, poultry retail prices up significantly over 2019

During the final week of May, meat and poultry supply remained tight but demand continued to be elevated.

IRI’s insights on the average retail price per volume show significant upward year-over-year pressure on retail prices for the week ending May 31
IRI’s insights on the average retail price per volume show significant upward year-over-year pressure on retail prices for the week ending May 31

During the final week of May, meat and poultry supply remained tight but demand continued to be elevated. Retail demand stayed well above last year’s baseline even as restaurants around the country started seeing improvements in reservations, transactions and continued elevated engagement with takeout. At retail, purchase limits remained in place for many popular cuts. Prices stayed mostly stable week-over-week but remained up significantly compared with year ago. Despite the supply pressure, dollar sales grew 18.7% the week of May 31 versus year ago and volume grew 2.8%.

Effects on wholesale and retail prices

The supply chain woes have affected wholesale and retail prices.

Shoppers called out higher meat prices and fewer meat features on CCF. “A lot of stuff out of stock or more expensive, but to no fault of anyone at the store. It is just the way it is.” Another wrote, “Prices seem higher than usual for meats. I would love to continue shopping here, but I am looking elsewhere. Just not happy with the prices and being sold out of products we need.”

 “Larger supplies of beef and pork, together with somewhat more muted retail and export interest due to price inflation, has resulted in a dramatic shift in market sentiment in the recent week. Prices for many beef and pork items are expected to move lower in an attempt to regain retail interest. The lack of ad activity for Father’s Day and the slowdown at retail has weakened the price outlook for many key items, particularly middle meats. Even so, retailers are shifting promotional activity away from beef for much of the summer as consumer interest has waned at the higher price points,” said Christine McCracken, Executive Director Food & Agribusiness for Rabobank.

IRI’s insights on the average retail price per volume show significant upward year-over-year pressure on retail prices for the week ending May 31 for beef, particularly ground beef, and pork. However, compared to the week prior, prices only increased 2.5%. The average price per volume for turkey and chicken actually decreased from the week prior.  

What’s next?

The next sales report, covering week 14 of coronavirus’ affected shopping patterns, is the first week of June. Many states will have officially started summer vacation, which caused a different demand landscape in prior years versus the months that students are in school. Additionally, sales may have been affected by shortened hours due to local and state-wide curfews.

Meanwhile, the relaxation of the stay-at-home executive orders continued. In most states, consumers are able to resume shopping, dining and working out of home. The speed of economic recovery along with any levels of latent social anxiety will drive the demand for meat coming from foodservice for the foreseeable future. Given the limited seating for in restaurant dining and significant levels of economic pressure, it is likely that demand for meat in retail will continue to track well above 2019 levels for the foreseeable future.

View our continuing coverage of the coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic.

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