So far, the 2020 pandemic-affected holidays have seen strong sales performances. Without exception, Easter, Mother’s Day, Father’s Day and Memorial Day boosted the elevated everyday demand even higher to achieve astounding gains versus year ago. Independence Day was no exception.
Meat prices were still elevated and several states tightened pandemic social distancing measures as the number of cases rose. In many cases, this involved stricter in-restaurant dining capacity limits. This could have prompted everyday demand to increase for the week ending July 5 along with the holiday demand.
Independence Day is a much tougher holiday to beat year-over-year sales given the high focus on grilling versus eating out in regular years. However, the 2020 holiday resulted in a 17.9% increase in dollar sales versus year ago. This was the 17th week of double-digit gains since the onset of the pandemic. And while higher prices drove much of this gain, the holiday brought meat volume growth too, at +4.1%. The dollar/volume gap continued to improve to 13.8 points.
Expectations for the holidays were smaller gatherings and unit sales support this assumption. Unit purchases in fresh meat increased by 8.4 million, or 5.2%, over the Fourth of July week versus last year, while volume increased 4.1%. This points to more, but smaller, packages sold.
So far during the pandemic, starting March 15 through July 5, dollar sales are up 36.4% and volume sales have increased 23.0% versus the same period last year.
Total meat department sales came in at $1.66 billion for the week of July Fourth. Growth percentages versus year ago were not as high as those seen for Father’s Day week, however, Independence Day is a tougher holiday to go up against given the at-home-grilling versus restaurant-visit tradition. All areas were in positive territory, with only Frankfurters in the mid single digits.
What’s next?
Independence Day week was the last of the spring and summer holidays, leaving a seven week stretch of regular weeks where everyday demand will likely continue boost sales past last year’s levels. Wave 14 of the IRI shopper surveys shows that concern over COVID-19 is rebounding as cases rise around the country. Thirty-eight percent now say they are more concerned than they were last week and 41% of Americans are bracing for longer duration, expecting the health crisis to last at least 12 more months.
Given the rising concern and the rolling back of restaurant re-openings, foodservice meat demand may plateau, while consumers once more flock to supermarkets for their animal protein needs. It is likely that dollar gains at retail will sit above the 2019 baseline for the foreseeable future. Depending on price, volume gains may see some pressure as consumers have been diverting protein dollars to frozen meat and seafood as well as fresh seafood. Inflation in fresh and processed meats has started to moderate these past few weeks and this is expected to continue as supply is ample.
View our continuing coverage of the coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic.
Like what you just read? Sign up now for free to receive the Poultry Future Newsletter
