Future food behaviors will be largely controlled by two main drivers, population and income, Jayson Lusk, Distinguished Professor and Head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, said during the Purdue Top Farmer Conference.
“The two big ones that immediately come to mind are population and income. And that might sound kind of boring,” he explained. “But the truth is, those two things, population and income, have been the most consistent demand drivers for food and agriculture over the past century or more. And so, I think we wouldn't do ourselves any service by ignoring those two things.”
The population is increasing… or is it?
For years, agriculture has been discussing the need to find ways to feed a growing population.
“Throughout a lot of human history, the biggest concern is that we have too many people and that we're not going to be able to feed all these mouths. But there's a bit of a different concern that's been emerging in recent years and that's not the population bomb, but perhaps an under- population bomb,” Lusk said.
According to current predictions, population is still expected to grow, but at an uneven rate throughout the world. Most of the growth is expected to come from low-income countries, while population rates are slowing – and even stalling – in high-income countries like the U.S., Canada and western Europe.
This means that “if we want to take advantage of the extra demand that comes from population growth, we’re going to need to look abroad,” he said.
How income affects food spending
Some foods – like poultry, eggs and pork – are basically unchanged by income level, said Lusk. This means that no matter how much money someone makes, they will still plan on purchasing these products.
Income level can, however, affect the value someone places on certain selection factors. For example, Lusk conducted a survey in 2019 where he asked people what made a food healthy.
“Both groups tend to think of things like you know use of hormones and antibiotics as being a driver,” Lusk said. “Lower income people tend to associate things like organic and use of GMOs more with healthiness, whereas higher income people chose number of calories, fat content and use or hormones or antibiotics..”
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