Over the next decade, overall global meat production is projected by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to reach 366 million metric tons by 2030 or nearly 40 million metric tons more — 80% of which will be driven by developing nations. Of this total, poultry will still contribute the largest volume, with world poultry meat production at more than 130 million metric tons averaged from the period 2018-20, rising to over 153 million metric tons in 2030 (Figure 1). Increasing demand for poultry meat will drive increases in both production and consumption in the next decade.”
While global growth in poultry production is expected to be at a slower pace in the coming decade than it was in the past, poultry will be the primary driver of increased global meat production through 2030, thanks to lower production costs relative to other meats, a shorter production cycle, better feed-conversion ratios and lower product prices in many regions. Comparatively, pig meat production — the second-largest contributor to global meat production — is forecast at 127.3 million metric tons by 2030 up from an average of around 113 million metric tons during the 2018-20 base period. Improvements in genetics, animal health and management practices also continue to benefit the industry and consumers alike, in the end.
According to OECD-FAO, the annual poultry growth rate from 2021-30 will be an average of 1.5%, compared to 2.7% over the same period of 2011-20. Much of the average annual increase in poultry production is expected to come from the 1% annual increase in poultry numbers in the period 2021.
Key to poultry production: Developing regions
In the short term, poultry producers will benefit from favorable meat-feed ratios and increased import demand worldwide, while Asia will account for a large majority of the increase in poultry meat production in 2020 and 2021, according to FAO. North America will remain a large contributor, followed by countries in South America and Europe (Figure 4).
Update: U.S, Brazil, Latin America
In the U.S., poultry meat production is expected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) at almost 51 billion pounds in 2021, increasing to over 51 billion pounds in 2022 (Table 1).
Brazil, China, the EU and U.S. are expected to account for nearly 61% of global chicken meat output in 2021. Worldwide, poultry exports by major exporters are predicted to increase by 24% between the years 2022 and 2030, according to the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board projections.
Brazil will continue to be a major poultry producing country as well, according to OECD-FAO. USDA projects Brazil’s poultry meat production to increase to 14.15 million metric tons in 2021, up from 13.88 million metric tons in 2020 (Figure 6). Brazil will remain the largest driver of growth of poultry meat production over the next decade within Latin America; the country is set to increase its production by 14.7% from 2021 to 2030 and produce 16.24 million metric tons in 2030.
More data available from the meat production section
Brazil poultry meat production and consumption trends 2017-20
Global meat production by species avg. 2018-20 vs. 2030
Global poultry meat production growth avg. 2011-20 vs. 2021-30
Poultry meat production by region 2020-21
Poultry production in Latin America and the Caribbean avg. 2018-20 vs. 2030
US quarterly poultry product production 2020-22
World poultry meat production and consumption projections to 2030
