Return to normalcy boosts turkey sales for Thanksgiving

More people are planning on celebrating Thanksgiving this year, with 60% saying they will celebrate the holiday as usual, defined as the way they did before COVID-19.

Syda Production | Shutterstock.com
Syda Production | Shutterstock.com

More people are planning on celebrating Thanksgiving this year, with 60% saying they will celebrate the holiday as usual, defined as the way they did before COVID-19. That will likely result in strong demand for turkey this year as the flagship Thanksgiving center-of-plate meat

As is, sales are off to a strong start. October 2021 dollar sales of whole bird turkey are 180% above October 2020 levels and +194% higher in volume. This aligns with the IRI shopper survey in which 36% of shoppers said they plan to start shopping earlier. This has been a trend all throughout the pandemic, making the full week before the holiday the biggest week for most departments, rather than the holiday week itself. 

There is ample supply of whole bird turkey in the marketplace and consumers have more choice with the average number of items per store up 6.6% in October 2021 versus year ago. Additionally, prices for whole bird turkey remain favorable with the average price per volume at $1.42, which is down 4.8% from October 2020. 

The price per unit is up a bit, signaling larger birds in the marketplace than last year. The average price for one whole bird turkey is $21.55, which is up 2.6%. Specific preferences for certain sizes, brands or fresh versus frozen aside, finding turkey should be no problem this year. 

Other survey findings are:

  • 36% hosting or attending a party with guests beyond their own household and 25% preparing a special meal for just their own household. 
  • In addition to or in lieu of Thanksgiving dinner, 8% are also doing a “Friendsgiving” meal with friends. 
  • Only 9% are not planning on a special celebration this year.
  • The average party size is also expected to be bigger this year, at an average of seven to eight people.
  • 22% expect to spend more on Thanksgiving dinner than they did last year, in part because of inflation and in part because of a larger party size.

Twenty months into the pandemic, meat retailing remains in flux. Continually changing consumer consumption and buying patterns, high inflation and severe supply chain constraints have yet to create a new and lasting balance of supply and demand. 

IRI and 210 Analytics have teamed up since March 2020 to document the ever-changing marketplace and its impact on the meat department. The monthly meat and poultry analysis is made possible by Marriner Marketing

Please thank the entire meat and poultry industry, from farm to store, for all they do.

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