Over the next 10 years, it will become harder for European Union (EU) poultry meat producers to increase production. Over this period, growth in domestic consumption is forecast to slow, competition for export markets will get tougher and producer prices will remain stagnant. However, the prospects for the sector are more optimistic than for some other meat producers in the region.
These are among the leading conclusions of the latest “EU agricultural outlook for markets, income and environment, 2021-2031.”
In the latest from this annual series from the European Commission (EC) DG Agriculture and Rural Development in Brussels, this new report covers the coming 10-year period. With the uncertainties relating to many aspects covered by the report, the publishers state that this medium-term outlook should be viewed as a baseline. Its primary purpose is to set a basis for comparison of the expected policy impacts that will be included in subsequent editions, the EC states.
Poultry meat consumption set to grow more slowly
By 2031, according to the EC forecast, poultry meat output in the EU will be around 14 million metric tons (mmt). This is equivalent to an annual increase of just 0.4% each year, and compares with annual growth of 2.6% over the past 10 years.
However, the region’s growth in consumption of poultry meat is forecast to rise by around 0.6%. In 10 years’ time, per capita consumption is expected to be 24.8kg (54.7lb) — up from the current average of 23.5kg. This growth will be driven by the relatively healthy image of poultry meat, convenience in preparation, and it is accepted by all religions.
For comparison, over the past decade, consumption of poultry meat in the EU has been growing at around 2% annually.
In terms of poultry meat prices, EC highlights that these have already started to recover following the fall in 2020-2021 linked to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. By 2031, it forecasts a slow rise towards EUR2,000 (US$2,260) per metric ton.
For EU producers, Brazil represents a strong competitor on export markets, according to the EC. Furthermore, China is likely to cut its imports of poultry meat as well as pork as it recovers from African swine fever (ASF). Overall, the EU’s share of global poultry meat exports is forecast to decline from the present 16% to 13% by 2031. While there may be few chances for the bloc to increase export volumes significantly over the coming years, the EC identifies Sub-Saharan Africa, the Philippines, Colombia and the United Kingdom as markets with export potential.
General meat market trends in the EU
According to the latest report, sustainability is expected to play an ever more important role in EU meat markets. For both producers and consumers, this means more attention will be given to the environmental, economic, and societal goals. It is expected that the adoption of new technologies and changing farming methods will contribute to the more efficient and also more environment-friendly meat production in the EU.
As well as health and convenience, European consumer choices for meat will increasingly be guided by the origin and production method, according to the EC.
By the end of the outlook period, EC forecasts average per capita meat consumption in the EU will be around 67kg. This compares with almost 70kg in 2018.
EU production of pork, beef set to shrink
For the pig meat sector, ASF represents great uncertainty in terms of production and consumption in Europe — and elsewhere. If Chinese pork production is restored by 2026, as some have forecast, EU producers will keenly feel the loss of this valuable export market.
In terms of EU production, the EC foresees an annual fall of 0.8% in the region’s pork output. By 2031, the forecast is for production to be 21.5mmt. As a result of societal and environmental concerns European citizen are expected to reduce their consumption of pig meat by 0.5% per year. So from the current average of 32.5kg, intake could be 31.0kg by 2031.
The latest outlook report includes forecasts for a reduction of 7% in total beef cow numbers over the next 10 years. Meanwhile, beef production is expected to drop by as much as 8% as consumption continues to fall steadily. By 2031, average per-capita uptake is forecast to drop to 9.7kg from the present 10.6kg.
In contrast to pork and beef, EU production of sheep meat is expected to rise by 0.3% annually over the decade to 660,000 metric tons. This expansion will likely be driven by income support, limited supplies from other regions, and improvements in producer prices. Changing dietary patterns in the EU are forecast to raise per-capita consumption of sheep meat to an annual average of 1.4kg per person.
