Revised forecasts for Brazilian poultry production suggest that output this year will be higher than previously thought. Forecasts published in September 2021 suggested that total production this year would rise to a record high of 14.4-14.7 million metric tons (mmt). Now, however, the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA) believes that production could reach 14.9 mmt and, where exports are concerned, 2022 is forecasted to see international sales rise by 5% to reach 4.74 mmt.
A number of factors are contributing to this higher demand for chicken meat, including ongoing support for Brazilian consumers.
According to ABPA President Ricardo Santin, the Brazilian poultry industry’s home market has been boosted by federal government support programs and these will continue into 2022 despite the recovery in the economy.
“Analyzing consumer behavior throughout the year reveals the impact that these programs have had in supporting access to poultry, pig meat and eggs,” Santin said in a press meeting in December 2021. “It is one of the factors that should help to support consumption over the year ahead.”
Per capita poultry meat in the country is thought to have stood at 46 kg last year, a 2% increase, while 2022 forecasts suggest an increase of 4% to reach 48 kg.
Santin went on to explain that difficulties in some competing markets are already opening up more opportunities for Brazilian exporters.
Where chicken meat is concerned, he said, the impacts of avian influenza were already altering trade flows, and this was favoring Brazil.
Costs to stay high
Not everything is positive for the Brazilian industry. While feed prices are expected to stabilizes this year, increases in the price of other inputs are expected to continue upwards.
Santin noted that indicators for both the home and international markets suggested that prices would not come down in the short term. Given that demand for Brazilian product is expected to remain high, ongoing measures to control the costs of diesel and plastics would still be needed and the industry would continue to need to import feed ingredients from beyond its Mercosur neighbors.
Revised figures for 2021 show that output for the year ended slightly higher than previously expected, growing by 3.5% to stand at 14.35 mmt.
Brazilian poultry industry forecasts more growth in 2022
