Global chicken meat production this year is forecast to reach 100.8 million tons, according to Livestock and Poultry: World Markets, published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in January this year.
The USDA’s struck a slightly less optimistic note in its latest report. It had previously expected broiler meat output this year to rise by 2% to reach 100.9 million tons
It noted that an improved outlook for U.S. production would be generally offset by lower growth expectations for the European Union (EU), which continues to be held back by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
Production in Brazil is expected to reach 14.8 million tons, with demand from both the country’s home and overseas markets, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.
The USDA does not offer a figure for chicken meat production in China; however, it notes that the total chicken meat supply in the country is expected to stand at 15.1 million tons. Chicken meat imports fell at the end of last year and the trend is continuing into this year as more plentiful supplies of locally-produced meats, particularly pork, enter the market.
Exports
Global chicken meat exports this year are predicted to reach 13.4 million tons, a higher figure than that released by the USDA in October when it predicted that this year’s chicken meat exports would rise by 3% to stand at 13.3 million tons.
Brazil is forecast to export a record 4.3 million tons of chicken meat and will account for approximately a third of all growth in global exports - despite slowing demand from China. The U.S. is expected to register only a small increase in exports this year - less than 1%. Exports should reach 3.4 million tons, with U.S. exporters enjoying improved outlooks in Mexico, Cuba and Angola.
Thailand’s exports are expected to suffer from ongoing COVID-19 problems, particularly labor shortages and reduced shipping container availability. However, its exports should return to pre-COVID-19 levels as 2022 progresses.
Competitor proteins
The outlook for pork production has improved with output expected to reach 109.9 million tons, higher than the estimates made in late 2021. While a contraction was previously expected, China is now expected to see output reach 49.5 million tons, an increase of 1% year on year. In the U.S. and Mexico, however, production is expected to be lower this year.
Global beef production is expected to reach 58.2 million tons. China’s temporary ban on Brazilian beef disrupted production in the South American country, however, this is being resolved. In Australia, production will be higher than previously expected, with some slaughter occurring this year that could not take place at the end of 2021. Beef production in the EU, however, is expected to be lower, while production will be moderated in China due to ample supplies.
2022's global poultry production higher, despite headwinds
