Poultry to progressively lead international meat trade

By 2031, poultry is projected to account for 40% of total world meat exports, followed by beef in second place at 31%.

Meredith Johnson Headshot
Young broiler chickens at the poultry farm
Young broiler chickens at the poultry farm
kharhan | BigStock.com

By 2031, poultry is projected to account for 40% of total world meat exports, followed by beef in second place at 31%. The increase in global meat trade through 2030 is expected to boost the value of poultry meat trade from US$25 billion in 2020 to US$27 billion in 2031.

Global poultry meat exports are expected to be 7.5% higher in 2031 compared to 2022, at 16.08 million metric tons (mmt), according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (Figure 2).

The increases are attributed to an improved outlook in Brazil, the U.S., the Ukraine and China, as well as likely import expansions in Asia due to recovery from COVID-19 and poultry’s health benefits. Additionally, poultry’s affordable price point and recovery from the recent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in some countries will fuel growth.

Outlooks vary and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) believes that global poultry meat exports will reach only 13.5 mmt by 2031 (Figure 1). As always, meat trade is increasingly important to secure the global food supply, and more so now after major events such as the COVID-19 global pandemic, the war in Ukraine and disease outbreaks.

Regional trade differences

The majority of poultry meat exports originate from Brazil and the U.S., and the two countries are expected to contribute to approximately two thirds of the overall increase in global poultry meat exports by 2031.

Brazil is projected to remain the top global exporter of poultry in 2022, reaching over 4 mmt, due to its favorable exchange rate and availability of feed ingredients (Table 1). Its status as the largest exporter of poultry meat is projected to further increase in the next decade as its exports reach over 5 mmt.

In addition to Brazil, there is potential for increases in poultry meat exports from Turkey and Thailand due to the supply gap left by Ukraine. According to the FAO, exports are likely to increase from the European Union (E.U.) and the United Kingdom (U.K.) in part driven by higher demand from some African countries. Additionally, the possible relaxation of trade controls by the U.K. will increase the number of imports it receives from the E.U.

Annual poultry meat imports to some of the top importing areas, such as, for example the Middle East, the E.U. and Mexico, are expected to increase to 1.43 mmt, 1.33 mmt and 1.29 mmt, respectively, over the next decade, according to the USDA (Table 2). Additional import growth across the 10-year period is projected across emerging markets in Latin America and Africa. These increases are attributed to poultry’s price point compared to beef or pork, projected rising incomes and urbanization. 

Additionally, Chinese demand for imported chicken will continue to grow as the country’s consumption outpaces its growth in production. However, predicted growth in the swine sector may lessen the need for China to import chicken as recovery from the African swine fever (ASF) continues.

The demand for eggs in Europe is expected to grow steadily as consumers see the increasingly proven health benefits. While European egg exports decreased slightly between 2019 and 2020, 2021 saw a considerable increase at 2.8 mmt. European egg imports decreased between 2020 and 2021 due to an increase in the region’s production (Figure 3).

Germany shell egg imports 2010-20

U.S. poultry meat trade by type 2021-23

Poland shell egg exports 2010-20

Poultry trade projections by region 2022 vs. 2031

Netherlands shell egg exports 2010-20

Iraq shell egg imports 2010-20

Netherlands shell egg exports 2010-20

Turkey shell egg exports 2010-20

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