U.S. egg prices were more volatile in 2016 compared to 2022, according to media company Urner Barry’s May 2023 analysis.
The average weekly price volatility in 2016 was 77.4%, compared to 69.5% in 2022. Additionally, as the market lowered in 2016, there were three significant periods of volatility that affected this year’s volatility.
Urner Barry compared the two years due to both suffering from outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
According to Andrei Rjedkin & Angel Rubio, Urner Barry analysts, volatility is a measurement that reflects the magnitude and frequency of price movements. Prices can be volatile on both the up and down shifts.
For this analysis, Rjedkin and Rubio measured the weekly price volatility as a percentage. The higher the percentage, the higher the volatility.
Market conditions
Many experts suspected that volatility would be higher in 2022 compared to 2016 due to the market conditions during the two years, explained the analysts.
In 2022, the egg market saw high inflation levels for both consumers and producers, ongoing supply chain issues and the Russia-Ukraine War, all while still recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additionally, between 2021 to 2022, the average weekly price volatility increased by 28.6 percentage points, said the analysts.
Into 2023
So far in 2023, egg prices in the U.S. have leveled out to normal values from the record highs seen in 2022. According to the report, on a year-to-date basis, prices decreased from US$4.88 per dozen during the week of January 2nd to US$0.94 per dozen during the week of May 1st.
This is partially due to no avian influenza cases being detected on U.S. layer farms since December 2022.
Looking at the rest of the year, Rjedkin and Rubio suspect that as the current HPAI outbreak ends, the egg market could experience more volatility, similar to what happened to the market in 2016.
