Biofuels Could Provide One-Quarter of All Transportation Fuel By 2050, Says IEA

Up from current 1.5 percent.

Biofuels could provide some 25 percent of the world's transportation fuel by 2050, up from 1.5 percent today, according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka. Speaking recently at the World Biofuels Markets 2010 in Amsterdam, Tanaka said biofuel production would increase steadily because it is the only feasible low-carbon technology for certain transportation modes.

Although more and more passenger cars will be plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles, heavy-duty transport cannot go electric. "To de-carbonize trucks, ships, and aircraft will thus require liquid diesel replacements in the form of biofuels," he said.

IEA forecasts that so-called first-generation biofuels would be phased out around 2030. These fuels — mainly made from U.S. corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol, and canola biodiesel from the EU — have had mixed environmental, economic, and social results to date.

After 2020, nearly all new biofuels would be from advanced technology lignocellulosic (biomass) ethanol, biomass-to-liquids diesel, algae, and others, accounting for more than half of all biofuels by 2030. Production of biofuels made from sugar cane and lignocellulosic ethanol — both "very low carbon dioxide options" — would rise rapidly under the scenario from 2010 to 2030, he said.

However, it is unclear whether enough cropland will be available to produce these biofuels, Tanaka said.

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