The global broiler industry can look forward to a decade of growth, according to the latest report from the Food and Agriculture Research Institute (FAPRI), published earlier this year.
FAPRI forecasts that, although a lower tariff related quota (TRQ) in Russia will reduce world trade in the short term, the market will expand by 1.3% annually to 2019 and reach 8.29 million metric tonnes (mmt). Total broiler production over the period, FAPRI says, will grow by 1.8% to reach 79.36 mmt.
China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) makes it a net broiler importer, and by 2019 the country is expected to be importing 418 thousand metric tonnes (tmt). Neighbouring Taiwan’s imports are expected to grow by 7.3% annually to reach 116 tmt.
Japan’s net imports of broiler meat are expected to grow by 0.2% per annum to 2019. Imports by South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines are also expected to grow in response to overall economic expansion in these markets.
The EU moved in 2007 from being a net exporter to a net importer and is forecast to remain in that position. Mexico is will increase its imports by 2% per annum, meaning that by 2019 its total imports will reach 577 tmt.
Brazil’s net poultry exports increased by 14% in 2008 , as production rose by 5.7% and consumption increased by only 2.5%. Over the rest of the decade, net exports are assumed to stay at around 3.4 mmt. Fiscal incentives and subsidies from local government continue to encourage large new investments in broiler production, FAPRI says.
For the period 2005-2009, Brazil accounted for 49.9% of world exports. By 2014-2018, this is expected to have fallen to 44.8%.
The market share of broiler exports achieved by the US is expected to remain broadly stable over the coming years. Over the period 2005-2009, the US accounted for 41.7% of global exports. Between 2009 and 2013, this figure is expected to fall to 39.4%, before returning to 41.7% in the 2014-2018 period.
From the major drop in exports in 2004, it takes six years for Thailand’s broiler sector to recover from the avian influenza crisis and reach the pre AI historical trend. Recovery is helped by a new TRQ from the EU, Russia’s ban on US broilers, expansion of integrated producers, productivity improvements, reduced processing cost, investment in production innovation, and a shift to higher-value cooked products. Thailand’s net exports will increase by 6.5% annually to reach 635 tmt in 2019.
Form the period 2005-2009, Thailand’s share of the global broiler export market stood at 4.8%. For 2009-2013, this is expected to reach 6.6%, climbing to 7.4% in 2014-2018.
The EU’s exports were further limited in 2008, but new AI outreaks in 2007, changing the grouping from being a net exporter to a net importer. By 2019, net imports are expected to stand at 29 tmt.
There are several reasons for this change. These include aggressive promotion by low-cost exporters in those markets that had been the EU’s traditional export destinations and the introduction of a lower import quota by Russia. However, high feed costs, strict animal welfare rules and environmental regulations have reduced the competitiveness of European producers.
However, it is not simply demand that will affect trade, changing market access is also playing a part.
FAPRI points out that, under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico removed its global TRQ and its prohibitive out-quota rates. The TRQ was removed in 2008. A safeguard agreement was reached with the US, whereby a TRQ for chicken leg quarters is imposed.
The product is duty free, but out-quota is charged at 98.8% duty. Strong domestic demand in Mexico is expected to drive up net imports by 2.0% annually, to reach 577 tmt in 2019.
Taiwan, with its WTO accession, removed its quota and replaced it with a “tariff-only regime” in 2005. As a result, imports are projected to increase by 7.3% annually, reaching 116 tmt by 2019. A shift to differentiated local breeds, however, will sustain domestic production, which is forecast to grow by 1.5% each year.
Russia imposes a lower TRQ of 0.78 mmt over the next decade. Over the period considered by FAPRI, the quota for imports is binding. Domestic production is being encouraged by the government and is expected to grow by 3.0%, higher than the predicted 1.7% increase in consumption.