National Research Council Studies Underscore Significance of Climate Change

The National Research Council has issued three reports emphasizing why the United States should act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop a national strategy to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change.

The National Research Council has issued three reports emphasizing why the United States should act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop a national strategy to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change.

The NRC reports are part of a congressionally requested suite of five studies known as "America's Climate Choices." NRC functions as the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering.

"These reports show that the state of climate change science is strong," said Ralph Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences. "But the nation also needs the scientific community to expand upon its understanding of why climate change is happening, and focus also on when and where the most severe impacts will occur and what we can do to respond."

The case that climate change is occurring and is caused in large part by human activities is based on a strong, credible body of evidence, according to "Advancing the Science of Climate Change," one of the three new reports. "The core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations," says the report.

"Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems," the report concludes. It calls for a new era of climate change science where an emphasis is placed on "fundamental, use-inspired" research, which not only improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change but also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels acting to limit and adapt to climate change.

The report recommends that a single federal entity or program be given the authority and resources to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change.

Reducing vulnerabilities to negative effects of climate change that the nation cannot, or does not, avoid is a highly desirable strategy to manage and minimize the risks, says another report, "Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change." Some effects –– such as rising sea levels, disappearing sea ice, and the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events like heavy precipitation and heat waves –– are already being observed across the country.

The report notes that policymakers need to anticipate a range of possible climate conditions and that uncertainty about the exact timing and magnitude of impacts is not a reason to wait to act. In fact, it says boosting U.S. adaptive capacity now can be viewed as "an insurance policy against an uncertain future," while inaction could increase risks, especially if the rate of climate change is particularly large.

Substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require prompt and sustained efforts to promote major technological and behavioral changes, says "Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change," another of the new reports. Although limiting emissions must be a global effort to be effective, strong U.S. actions to reduce emissions will help encourage other countries to do the same. In addition, the United States could establish itself as a leader in developing and deploying the technologies necessary to limit and adapt to climate change.

The report does not recommend a specific target for a domestic emissions budget, but suggests a range of emissions from 170 to 200 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent for the period 2012 through 2050 as a reasonable goal, a goal that is roughly in line with the range of emission reduction targets proposed recently by the Obama administration and some members of Congress.

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