Placing something of a wet blanket on USDA's optimistic projections for the future of biofuels (see story above), the International Energy Agency in Paris reports that although second-generation biofuels are considered important to meeting environmental and energy-security goals, commercial production of these fuels is unlikely to significantly take off in the next five years due to technological, logistical and cost barriers.
The IEA report forecasts overall biofuels production increasing by about 800,000 barrels per day from 2009 to 2014, to reach 2.4 million barrels per day in 2015. This projected growth, 75 percent of which comes from the United States and Brazil , is an upgrade from the forecast of 600,000 b/d growth for the period, which IEA made in December.
The report also forecasts an increase in production of second-generation biofuels, particularly due to a U.S. cellulosic biofuel mandate taking effect from 2010 onwards.
However, it said current data indicate global production potential for second-generation biofuels will reach a maximum 150,000 b/d by 2015, 55 percent from ethanol and the rest from biodiesel. "Technology development delays and difficult economics may keep actual production well below this level," the agency said.
Second-generation biofuels are mainly produced from non-food, cellulosic sources and provide greater greenhouse gas savings than standard fuels and most first-generation fuels, according to IEA.
