There have been many signs since our last report that the Poultry Confidence Index (PCI) was heading for a record-breaking second quarter:
- positive (PCI) trends over the last several quarters
- three consecutive months of rising consumer confidence
- higher-than-normal prices
- restrained production (across the entire meat and poultry sector)
- lower feed costs
- declining fuel prices
And we weren’t disappointed – the PCI rose in a big show of positive industry confidence. The Overall Index now stands at 128.9 (1996=100), up from 114.0 last quarter. The Present Situation Index increased to 146.0 from 79.4. The Expectations Index fell from 137.0 to 117.5, but remained well above the normative level.
In the process, there were several notable findings:
- third-highest Overall Index
- Present Situation Index nearly doubled in one quarter as the Present Conditions Index reached its third-highest level
- all top-line and sub-indices were positive for the first time since early 2005
- highest overall average across all sub-indices
It was truly a remarkable quarter. We hope there is more of this to come.
The PCI focused on two additional issues this quarter:
- about half of respondents indicated a double-dip recession was “not at all likely” or only “possible,” while the other half said it was “more likely than many realize” or there was “at least a 50-50 chance”
- nearly three-in-four respondents were “guarded” about the U.S. trade situation with both Russia and China.
Would you like to be among industry leaders sharing your views in the WATT-Rennier Poultry Confidence Index? Join other key decision makers who are sharing their views. We'll send you a short, two-minute survey once a quarter and you'll receive a preview of the findings before they are published!
Report by Greg Rennier, Ph.D - President, Rennier Associates Inc.