2010 broiler, pork production estimates reduced
World agricultural report also predicts an increase in 2010 poultry prices
The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports broiler and pork production are reduced from last month. The 2011 forecast is reduced as higher feed prices encourage cattle producers to keep cattle on forage longer and tempers pork, broiler and turkey production gains.
Pork and poultry trade forecasts are unchanged from last month. Livestock and poultry prices for 2010 are raised but forecasts for 2011 cattle and hog prices are unchanged. The broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2011 are raised slightly on expected tightness in supplies. Egg prices for 2010 are forecast higher due to the recent spike in third-quarter prices, but the forecast for 2011 is unchanged.
Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are lower this month with lower carryin and reduced production for corn and sorghum. Beginning stocks for corn are projected 40 million bushels lower with higher 2009/10 corn use for ethanol and a small increase in exports. Corn production for 2010/11 is forecast at 13,160 million bushels, down 205 million, but still the largest crop on record. The national average yield is forecast at 162.5 bushels per acre, down 2.5 bushels.
Domestic corn use for 2010/11 is lowered 100 million bushels with lower expected feed and residual use, as higher prices trim feeding demand and the smaller crop reduces residual disappearance. Projected exports are raised 50 million bushels with rising world demand for coarse grains, particularly corn. U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to decline to 1.1 billion bushels, down 196 million bushels.
Soybean exports for 2010/11 are increased 50 million bushels to 1.485 billion, reflecting strong early season sales and a projected increase in global import demand, especially for China. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, down 10 million from last month as higher export demand more than offsets the increased supply.
Soybean exports for 2009/10 are projected at a record 1.495 billion bushels, up 25 million from last month, reflecting strong shipments in the final weeks of the marketing year. The increase is partly offset with a lower residual, leaving ending stocks projected at 150 million bushels, down 10 million. Other changes for 2009/10 include reduced use of soybean oil for biodiesel and increased soybean oil exports. Season ending soybean oil stocks are projected record high at 3.21 billion pounds.
Prices for soybeans and products are all raised this month, supported by strong prices for corn and wheat. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010/11 is projected at $9.15 to $10.65 per bushel, up 65 cents on both ends of the range.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected lower this month with higher expected world demand for U.S. wheat. Strong early season sales and reduced supplies in EU-27, particularly of higher quality wheat, support an improved outlook for U.S. exports.
Wheat exports are projected 50 million bushels higher with larger expected shipments of Hard Red Winter, Hard Red Spring and White wheat. Projected ending stocks are lowered by the same amount to 902 million bushels. At the projected level, stocks would remain the second highest in more than a decade. The 2010/11 season-average farm price is projected at $4.95 to $5.65 per bushel, compared to $4.70 to $5.50 last month.
The next WASDE report will be released Oct. 8.