Data from the U.S. Drought Monitor point to a warm, dry winter for Texas, with possible severe drought conditions throughout the state.

The Texas Panhandle and Big Bend regions are already developing drought conditions, according to the data, and a drought has been present for some time in East Texas along the Louisiana border. "The winter forecast is based primarily upon current and expected conditions in the tropical Pacific," said Professor John Nielsen-Gammon with Texas A&M University. "A La Niña event has been developing since the spring, and it seems that a moderate to strong La Niña is shaping up for this winter."

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Indicators of potential drought began in September, said Nielsen-Gammon. "Texas as a whole has been unusually dry since late September, causing drought conditions to expand," he said. "With the prospects of a warm and dry winter on the horizon, it is possible that this month marks the beginning of Texas's next serious drought."