The following tables present the October USDA estimates for the 2010 corn and soybean harvests and disposition of products. The major change is the 4% downward estimate in yield of corn which was reflected in a 15% increase in the CBT which soared over three trading sessions following release of the report. The corn harvest is however proceeding ahead of the level attained in the two preceding harvests. The lower production forecast and higher projected domestic use will sharply reduce ending stocks now projected at 902 million bushels. USDA estimates the season-average farm price at $4.60 to $5.40/bushel, approximately 60¢ up on both ends of the range.

The production of soybeans is forecast at 3,408 billion bushels and is down by 2.2% from the previous forecast based on lower harvested area and yield. The soybean price has risen probably in tandem with corn but the price also reflects international demand.

The USDA October forecast is expected to be revised in November as the rise in the corn price represents serious financial implications for livestock producers marketing products into an economy in recession.

Advertisement

October USDA estimate for 2010 corn harvest 

Harvest Area

81.3 m acres

 

Yield

155.8 bushel/acre*

*-4.1% from September estimate

Beginning Stock

1,708 m bushels

 

Production

12,664 m bushels

 

Imports

10 m bushels

 

Total Supply

14,382 m bushels

Proportion of Supply

Feed & Residual

3,400 m bushels

37.5%

Food & Seed

1,380 m bushels

9.6%

Ethanol Diversion

4,760 m bushels

32.7%

Domestic Use

11,480 m bushels

79.8%

Exports

2,000 m bushels

13.9%

Ending Stocks

902 m bushels

6.3%

Av. Farm Price

$4.60 - $5.40/bushel

 

October USDA estimate for 2010 soybean harvest and meal production and use 

Soybeans 

Harvest Area

76.8 m acres

 

Yield

44.4 bushel/acre

 

Beginning Stocks

151 m bushels

 

Production

3,408 m bushels

 

Imports

10 m bushels

 

Total Supply

3,569 m bushels

Proportion of Supply

Crushings

1,665 m bushels

46.7%

Exports

1,520 m bushels

42.6%

Seed

88 m bushels

2.5%

Residual

32 m bushels

0.9%

Total Use

3,305 m bushels

92.6%

Ending Stocks

265 m bushels

7.4%

Av. Farm Price

$10.00 - $11.50/bushel

 

 

Soybean Meal  

Beginning Stocks

300 tons

Production

39,535 tons

Imports

165 tons

Total Supply

40,000 tons

Domestic Use

30,600 tons

Exports

9,100 tons

Total Use

39,700 tons

Ending Stocks

300 tons

Av. Price

$290 - $330/ton