Even if humans stopped spewing global warming gases today, the world would face a steady rise in food prices this century, according to a report by the International Food Policy Research Institute. But on our current emissions path, climate change becomes the "threat multiplier" that could double grain prices by 2050 and leave millions more children malnourished, says the IFPRI report.
Beyond 2050, when climate scientists project temperatures might rise to as much as 6.4 degrees C (11.5 degrees F) over 20th century levels, the planet becomes "gloomy" for agriculture, said IFPRI senior research fellow Gerald Nelson.
The study, issued at the Cancun, Mexico UN climate conference, said prices could be driven up by a combination of factors: a slowdown in productivity in some places caused by warming and shifting rain patterns, and an increase in demand because of population and income growth.
Research points to future climate disruption for agricultural zones in much of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and parts of Latin America, including Mexico. In one combination of climate models and scenarios, "the Corn Belt in the United States could actually see a significant reduction in productivity potential," Nelson told reporters.
"Unlike the 20th century, when real agricultural prices declined, the first half of the 21st century is likely to see increases in real agricultural prices," the IFPRI report says.
Only deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and billions spent to help farmers adapt to a changing climate can head off serious food shortages, Nelson said. IFPRI, which is supported by world governments, estimates that at least $7 billion additional spending a year is needed for crop research and improved irrigation, roads and other upgrades of agricultural infrastructure.
.jpg?auto=format%2Ccompress&fit=crop&h=167&q=70&w=250)
