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News and analysis on the global poultry
and animal feed industries.
Paul Aho

Paul Aho

Paul Aho, Ph.D., is owner of Poultry Perspective and economist and consultant. To contact Aho, email paulaho@paulaho.com.

ARTICLES

12 people who transformed US poultry production

Chicken went from rare and expensive to bountiful and low-priced meat protein thanks to a host of innovators, including these 12 trailblazers.
Chicken went from rare and expensive to bountiful and low-priced meat protein thanks to a host of innovators, including these 12 trailblazers.
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Global food companies will control the poultry industry

The poultry industry’s future is big and global as growth slows in mature markets and opportunities are in multinational, food-protein ventures.
In the not-too-distant future, all poultry businesses will be global internet businesses or they will not be in business at all. They will, in all likelihood, be food companies, not poultry companies.
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POULTRY PERSPECTIVE

Farewell: Paul Aho bows out after 30 years

With the December 2014 issue Poultry Perspective column, Dr. Paul Aho bids farewell to readers.
 With theDecember issue Poultry Perspective column, Dr. Paul Aho bids farewell toreaders but is confident the chicken industry stands in fine shape.  
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POULTRY PERSPECTIVE

Chicken producers set for profitability

Low input costs would be cause enough for celebration, but when combined with a shortage of competing meats it creates the best of all possible worlds.
Grain prices are falling, chicken prices arestrong and the competing meats are retreating from the playing field. It’s asgood as it gets for the chicken industry. 
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POULTRY PERSPECTIVE

The great meat recession

During the meat recession, US per capita red meat and poultry consumption dropped nearly 20 pounds or 10 percent.
When meat consumption is falling, it is almost sure to be a period of deteriorating economic conditions. On the other hand, rising meat consumption is generally a sign of an improving real economy. In contrast to the official end of the economic recession in the U.S. economy in 2009, the meat recession ended in 2012. During the meat recession, U.S. per capita red meat and poultry consumption dropped nearly 20 pounds or 10 percent. It was the biggest such recession since the 1930s. 
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POULTRY PERSPECTIVE

Soybean demand slowing as ‘China effect’ recedes

Chinese meat consumption has reached the point at which growth is likely to slow considerably, along with its soybean demand.
With a slowdown imminent in the rate of increase in animal protein in China, the rate at which imports of soybeans grows is also about to slow down. Instead of growing at 5 million metric tons per year, it can be expected that the rate of increase will be falling. Over the next several years a much lower average growth of perhaps 2 or 3 million metric tons can be expected.
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POULTRY PERSPECTIVE

US chicken breast prices now globally competitive

The falling price of corn will enable the price of skinless boneless breasts to reach a (profitable) $1 per pound this year, completing an 80 percent drop in price in 30 years.
Thefalling price of corn will enable the price of skinless boneless breasts toreach a (profitable) $1 per pound this year, completing an 80 percent drop inprice in 30 years.   
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POULTRY PERSPECTIVE

Will China develop more of a taste for chicken?

If consumption per capita increases by a scant 10 pounds in China between 2010 and 2020, China could become the world’s largest producer and consumer of chicken.
The future of the world chicken industry depends a lot on the taste for chicken in China. Currently chicken is not the most popular protein in China, nor is it second or even third. Chicken meat is a distant fourth after pork, farmed fish and table eggs. If the Chinese develop a taste for eating slightly more chicken, the country would become the largest producer of chicken meat.
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POULTRY PERSPECTIVE

Gap narrows between economic growth in developing, developed world

Growth in developing world is slowing while the developed world accelerates
A significant change in the relationship between growth in the developed and developing world is taking place. Growth in the developing world is slowing while the developed world accelerates. As a result, the difference between the two is narrowing.
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Poultry Perspective

Chicken consumption to increase significantly for median world income group

Those earning a median world income are seeing and will continue to see a rise in their chicken purchasing power.
Chicken meat consumption is often looked at through the lens of the richest part of the world, but that part of the world does not include the majority of the income group that will be buying much more chicken in the next few decades.
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POULTRY PERSPECTIVE

A bear market for corn is inevitable

Chart analysis would suggest a 50 percent retracement of commodity prices. Is $5 a bushel corn a realistic prospect this fall?
Corn reached a high point of $8.44 per bushel in August of 2012, and hindsight now suggests that a bear market began at that moment. Since vicious bear markets often follow on the heels of vigorous bull markets, the poultry industry can hope or at least dream about $5 or less corn this fall. Is this dream realistic?
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