Without action, sharp rise in deaths predicted due to AMR

Without more action, AMR bacteria could claim three deaths per minute globally between 2025 and 2050.

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No prescription needed. Ciprofloxacin, amongst other medicines, for sale in a Santiago, Chile, street market.
No prescription needed. Ciprofloxacin, amongst other medicines, for sale in a Santiago, Chile, street market.
Mark Clements

Depending on where you work in the poultry industry, you may be familiar with a prudent use approach to antibiotics, or you may be working antibiotic free, or, alternatively, you may not restrict how you administer antibiotics to your birds at all.

If you’ve ever questioned why we really need to handle antibiotics with care, then the findings and forecasts of a recent study, that does not look specifically at agriculture but still makes for valuable reading, will answer any queries you may have. Be warned, however, the study paints a far from encouraging picture.

According to the landmark study by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) project, resistance to antibiotics or antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has led to at least 1 million deaths each year since 1990, with increasing rates of drug-resistant infections expected to claim more than 39 million lives between now and 2050 if further action is not taken.

GRAM, a partnership between the U.S.-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and Oxford University in the U.K., detailed in its study, published in The Lancet, that AMR has already claimed more than 36 million lives since 1990, with a death toll that is set to rise dramatically in the future.

Although annual deaths from AMR increased by about 8% between 1990 and 2021, the study predicts a rise of almost 70% in the decades thereafter, with annual deaths rising from 1.14 million in 2021 to 1.91 million in 2050. Without further policy interventions, global deaths will reach 39 million between 2025 and 2050 – the equivalent of three deaths per minute.

There are, or course, measures that can be taken to minimize the inappropriate use of antibiotics, and these are detailed by the researchers, who are encouraging countries to complete their National Action Plans to address AMR. Failure to make progress on all fronts will cost lives, the authors warn.

GRAM’s first study, published in 2022, revealed the scale of AMR for the first time. It found that global AMR-related deaths in 2019 were higher than those from HIV/AIDS or malaria, leading directly to 1.2 million deaths and playing a role in a further 4.95 million deaths.

Ongoing and growing threat

AMR-associated mortalities are also expected to increase.

By 2050, AMR is projected to play a role in 8.22 million AMR-associated deaths – an increase of 75% from 4.71 million associated deaths in 2021.

Professor Dame Sally Davies, UK Special Envoy on AMR, commenting on the GRAM study said that it confirmed that the world is facing an antibiotic emergency, with devastating human costs for families and communities across the world, and that it substantiated calls to all sectors to take decisive action now to save lives and modern medicine for generations to come.

Next time you wonder why we really need to be so careful with how we administer antibiotics to our birds, or to ourselves, remember the above. It might just save your life!

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