There has been a long-held view that a robust export market is a prerequisite for the U.S. broiler industry to command a premium price for dark meat, leg quarters especially. It’s part of a broader narrative centering on domestic consumers’ preference for white meat, leading to a “surplus” of cuts from the back half of the bird that either need to find a home outside of the country or else be heavily discounted to ensure clearance through domestic marketing channels.
Going back to when Russia dominated the export program up until about a decade ago when highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) sent exports into a tailspin, the evidence certainly backed that theory with higher leg quarter prices typically corresponding with periods of export strength and vice versa. More recently, however, there has been a decoupling of export strength and dark meat prices.
Turning point
A pivotal moment on this journey occurred in August 2014 when Russia formally cut ties with the U.S. on agricultural and food trade. Already reeling from that, the U.S. broiler industry’s export program suffered another blow less than a year later due to a historic outbreak of HPAI and the trade restrictions that followed.
Between 2011 and 2014, the export share of ready-to-cook (RTC) broiler production in the U.S. consistently exceeded 18%, and bulk leg quarter prices averaged more than $0.46 per pound during this four-year stretch according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). With the export share of domestic broiler production slumping to either side of 16% in 2015 and 2016, leg quarter prices averaged less than $0.30 per pound. The export share of domestic production ultimately stabilized in the 16-17% area for a few years, and the average annual price of bulk leg quarters ranged mostly between $0.25 and $0.35 per pound.
Cultivation of boneless dark meat
It turns out that domestic consumers’ ostensible preference for white meat has more to do with the fact that products in that category are more readily available in boneless form than anything particularly off-putting with dark meat.
In fact, for years, consumers have reported an affinity for dark meat in surveys, but price discrepancies between the front and back halves of the bird still implied a disconnect. Those discrepancies became less obvious when comparing boneless white meat to boneless dark meat, however, and the response from integrators has been to cultivate processing technology allowing them to debone a higher share of dark meat, and thigh meat in particular, than they once did.
Skyrocketing prices for boneless skinless breast meat, tenderloins and wings back in 2021-22 made dark meat more attractive, but it needed to be in the right form (i.e., boneless) to “click” with consumers. The push to debone more dark meat has accelerated, cutting into the supply of bone-in cuts once seen as the linchpin of the export program.
Basically, this is a classic case of a “rising tide lifting all boats.” While increasing demand for boneless dark meat has been the catalyst for change, a side effect has been a complete reshuffling of the dark meat complex to de-emphasize bone-in cuts. That is why, despite the export share of U.S. broiler production hitting a 20-year low in 2024, bulk leg quarters still managed to average nearly $0.50 per pound for the entire year.
